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п»їHow Do Bookmakers Set Their Odds?
Before you can truly understand if the odds you’re getting are good or not you need to understand how bookmakers set their odds.
It’s not as simple as you might think and once you understand the process it’s much easier to identify value bets.
There are two key concepts you need to be aware of, that we’ll cover in this article, and they are determining true odds and how bookmakers adjust their odds to make a profit.
Key Points.
When setting odds for an event, a bookmaker’s main aim is to try to ensure that they will make a profit no matter what the outcome. Bookmakers will first research and attempt to determine the true odds of any outcome occurring. Actual odds offered to punters will be based upon those true odds but downwardly adapted so as to provide the bookmaker with a ‘margin’, ‘overround’ or ‘vigorish (vig)’. If punters bet in a manner divergent from the bookmaker’s expectations, odds will be adjusted in order to try to maintain that margin.
Setting Odds: Determining True Odds.
The first step for any bookmaker in setting their odds for a given event is trying to determine the true probability or odds of any given outcome occurring. What we mean by outcome, in this case, is any possible result that they may have to pay out on (e.g. a home win, a draw or an away win in the case of a football match).
Factors to consider:
In order to determine these true odds, bookmakers will look at factors such as prior form, statistics, historical precedents, expert opinion and any number of other such factors that could impact the event in question. Following this research and analysis, the bookmaker will be left with what they deem to be the most accurate possible true odds of any outcome occurring.
A ‘Fair Book’:
To continue the football match analogy we alluded to earlier, those true odds might be that a home win is evens, a draw is 2/1 and an away win is 5/1. What those odds represent are a 50% chance of a home win, a 33.33% chance of a draw and a 16.67% chance of an away win.
If the bookmaker were to offer those odds, therefore, they would have produced what’s known as a ‘fair book’. That is a betting market where the percentage chances of all of the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
If in total punters bet in the same proportion as the relative probabilities of each outcome occurring (i.e. 50% on a home win, 33.33% on a draw and 16.67% on an away win) in this example, however, the bookmaker will pay out exactly what they take in regardless of the final result.
Bookmakers, therefore, must adjust the odds they actually offer to punters in order to try to ensure they make a profit.
How Do Bookmakers Actually Set Their Odds?
Once a bookmaker has determined what they believe to be the true odds of any outcome occurring in a given event, they will then adjust those odds downwards before offering them to punters.
In practice, the methods by which bookmakers do this can be diverse and quite complicated but for the sake of our explanation we will focus upon the simplest possible method; proportional decreasing.
In our above example the relative probability of each of the outcomes occurring (50%, 33.33% and 16.67%) has a proportional relationship of 3:2:1. That means that another set of three odds figures with the same relationship but which are all shorter could be what a bookmaker chooses to offer to punters.
An example of such a set of odds is 4/6, 6/4 and 4/1, which equates to relative probabilities of 60%, 40% and 20%. Whilst the proportional relationship between these odds is the same, however, the sum of their percentage figures is 120% rather than 100%. That means that if punters bet according to the same pattern as the true odds the bookmaker has determined (3:2:1), the bookmaker will always receive 20% more than they pay out .
That 20% figure is what is known as the bookmaker’s ‘margin’, ‘overround’ or ‘vigorish/vig’.
Why Do Odds Change Before an Event?
Whilst the above represents a simplified yet accurate representation of the odds setting process in theory, in practice any number of things can cause a bookmaker to need to alter their odds. The most notable example of something which can require a bookmaker to make such changes is us; the punters.
How Does Betting Affect Bookmaker Odds?
As we’ve mentioned above, the margin which the bookmaker attempts to build into every market they set odds for, is based upon the premise that punters will bet in similar proportions to the true odds of the event’s outcomes which they have determined. If in practice, however, punters actually bet far more than a bookmaker expects on one particular outcome then the amount the bookmaker will have to pay out in the event of that outcome (known as their liability) changes.
To take our previous example, once again, if a bookmaker offers odds of 4/6, 6/4 and 4/1 and takes a total of ВЈ120 in stakes, they would expect ВЈ60 to be placed at 4/6, ВЈ40 at 6/4 and ВЈ20 at 4/1. In that case, they would only ever be required to pay out ВЈ100 of the total ВЈ120 in stakes.
If the pattern were reversed and ВЈ60 was placed at 4/1, however, the bookmaker would be required to pay out ВЈ300 and so would lose ВЈ180. It is when betting patterns differ from what is expected, therefore, that bookmakers alter pre-event odds in order to balance their books and maintain their theoretical margin for the event.
It’s not always possible but changing the odds to balance liability is the main reason bookmaker odds change after the initial prices have been set.


How To Compile Your Own Odds.
January 12, 2016 By Bradley Gibbs.
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This is a guest post from sports betting expert and successful punter Bradley Gibbs. This is definitely a very important read for anyone who wants to punt profitably and you should bookmark this page and refer back to it very, very often!
Being able to compile your own odds is one of the key steps to being a successful punter. All of the profiting gamblers I’ve ever met or have indeed read about price up events for themselves and stress the importance of doing so. This article takes a look at why it is very useful to compile odds, and how it can be achieved.
Who compiles odds?
Many people associate odds compiling and the pricing up of events as practices carried out solely by bookmakers or the people bookmakers employ to do so – often known as ‘odds compilers’. The bookmaker forms a market by compiling a set of odds and the punter comes along and places their bet. The majority of punters are happy to accept whatever odds are offered on a particular market and place their bets without thinking too much of it, and for much of the betting world this is how it goes. But of course, as with many things, there are a few diamonds in the rough, a small percentage of punters out there who aren’t willing to conform to this normality. These are the shrewd punters who make that extra effort to tilt the scales in their favour by compiling their own odds. In doing so this type of punter uses their own odds in comparison with the odds set by the bookmaker in order to find and exploit good value.
Why compile our own odds?
If you’re serious about making a success of your punting efforts then compiling your own odds is something you really ought to be doing. For you can be sure, at least to some degree, that the successful minority are indeed compiling their own sets of odds. To some it might seem a bit long winded and perhaps even unnecessary to compile your own set of odds for each market you want to bet on, but the reality is – as with almost everything in life – to get results you have to put the work in. Pricing up events is an essential part of the work carried out by the serious punter. The main advantage of pricing up events is that it allows the punter to compare their own prices with those available with the bookmakers or on the exchange.
What do you need to price up?
It seems to be a fairly common misconception that compiling your own odds is a highly advanced process and can only be done by those who are blessed with a superior mathematical brain. This is simply not true. You don’t need to be a numbers genius to price up events for yourself, all you really need to do is be able to carry out some simple arithmetic. It is important to note that although you don’t need to be a particularly gifted mathematician to compile your own odds, you will need a strong knowledge of the event you’re planning to price up. For example if you’ve only got a beginners knowledge of racing then compiling your own odds will be pretty pointless as you will likely be hugely inaccurate. So first off make sure you are thoroughly educated in the sport you’re going to bet on.
How do you compile your own odds?
Pricing up a simple football market:
Let’s use a simple win/draw/win football market example to put this into practice. We’ll imagine that top four chasing, Tottenham are travelling to face struggling, Newcastle. We’ll start by looking at the relative home and away form of each side. To keep the example simple let’s look at Newcastle’s last 10 home games and Tottenham’s last 10 away games. Newcastle last 10 home games = Won 3, lost 4 and drawn 3 Tottenham last 10 away games = Won 3, lost 3 and drawn 4.
What we now need to do is use these figures to determine the odds on a home win, away win and the draw. To get a Newcastle win we add their 3 home wins to Tottenham’s 3 way losses = 6 To get a price for the draw we add 3 Newcastle draws to the 4 Tottenham draws = 7 To get Tottenham’s price we add their 3 away wins to Newcastle’s 4 losses = 7.
This leaves us with the following: Newcastle 6, Draw 7 and Tottenham 7. In order to get the percentage chances from this all we do is divide each number by the total number of matches sampled. So in this case 20. Newcastle percentage = 6/20 = 30% Tottenham percentage = 7/20 = 35% Draw = 7/20 = 35%
As discussed above all we do now is simply divide 100 by the percentage figure in order to express the chances of each team as odds.
Newcastle – 100/30 = 3.33 Tottenham – 100/35 = 2.85 Draw – 100/35 = 2.85.
We have now priced the win/draw/win market up as; 3.33 for a home win and 2.85 for both a draw and an away victory. Let’s assume that you feel Tottenham are much the stronger team and you expect them to win the game; however, the price available is only 2.65. You wouldn’t bet an away win at these odds simply because they are lower than the odds you have calculated yourself (your own odds being the ones you believe to be the true representation). Betting on a price below this would represent a bad value bet. On the other hand let’s imagine that you could back Tottenham to win at 3.00. At these odds Tottenham would be a better bet and would indeed represent good value.
Of course using just a sample of each teams’ relevant home/away form is quite a simple example and there are of course plenty of other factors you can consider when pricing up a game such as this. For example you may wish to consider a longer streak of games, perhaps 20. You can also consider both the home and away form of each side rather than just one or the other. Considering how the teams fared against similar opposition is also something that is recommended.
Pricing up a horse race –
Pricing up a horse race can be a bit trickier than a simple win/draw/win football market. The main reason for this is that there are less tangible statistics in a horse race. You will need to have an expert knowledge of form and be able to consider all the different factors involved in analysing both races and a particular horses’ chance.
As for the actual pricing up of the event itself, then this is pretty much the same as that which is discussed above. It is important to price the race to 100% and assign a percentage figure to each horse in the race.
Keeping things simple, let’s say that having analysed a three runner race you have compiled odds on the three runners to 100% and your prices show: 2.00 (50%), 4.00 (25%) and 4.00 (25%). By these calculations you believe that the favourite should be an even money shot and therefore has a 50% chance of winning. However, the actual prices available are: 2.50 (40%), 3.00 (33.3%) and 3.50 (28.6%). If this were to be the case – assuming you were right in your analysis – the value would lie in betting the favourite at a price of 2.00. This is simply because judging by your own prices the horse has a 10% greater chance of winning the race than the odds available suggest.
There are a lot of factors to consider when pricing up a race, so as a basic starting point it is advised that when beginning to do so you focus on smaller field events – probably 8 runners or less. Any more can become quite a headache, even for the more experienced odds compiler! The best thing to do before attempting to price up a horse race is to simply know your stuff! Learn about the different aspects of analysing racing and race form, there is tons of information out there, most of which is readily available at the click of a button. Read up on everything you can regarding the best ways to look at races and just generally learn as much as possible!
The benefits of compiling your own odds.
As we can see from both the racing and football examples above, the reason punters would choose to price up events for themselves is that it helps to both identify and exploit value. Of course “value” or “true odds” can be pretty vague terms, after all despite what some people may say, whether or not a selection represents good or bad value is never really more than matter of opinion, an opinion that is only proved right or wrong after the event has finished.
There is no doubt that being able to compile your own odds – using them as a comparison with those that are available on betting exchanges or with bookmakers – is an invaluable skill when aiming to be successful as a punter. Being able to do this though is nowhere near as useful as being able to do it correctly! This comes from hard work and knowing your stuff.
The bottom line is this; work hard, learn all there is to learn, practice compiling your own odds and through a combination of having an expert understanding of betting on your sport and the ability to compile your own odds you will give yourself an edge over the majority of the betting world.


Betting Odds Calculator.
The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.
Top Offers.
American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet.
Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign , and represent the money you need to risk to win $100 .
So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. You need to risk $140 to win $100 on the Packers. If they win, you profit $100 and get your original $140 back.
The rest of the world uses Decimal Odds , in part because it’s easier to convert them to implied probabilities than American Odds. Decimal odds represent the amount a bettor wins for every $1 wagered . And the number represents the total return , not just the profit like American and fractional odds.
The Packers would be 1.714 in decimal odds as a -140 favorite in American odds. For every $1 risked, you’re profiting 71.4 cents, plus your $1 back.
Fractional Odds are used primarily in the UK and Ireland. Few bettors use fractional odds for betting sports (other than horse racing), because the conversions to understand return are difficult.
To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by the top number (numerator), then divide the result by the bottom (denominator). So a $10 bet at 5/2 odds is (10 * 5) / 2, which equals $25. A $10 bet at 2/5 odds is (10 * 2) / 5, which is $4.
Did you notice those percentages add up to more than 100%? That’s because of the vig, which is a sportsbook’s cut for facilitating your bet. To calculate implied probability, use the following formulas:
For negative numbers (favorites), drop the minus sign, then do:
For positive numbers (underdogs) :
The bet amount is how much you’re risking on a given bet. As a responsible bettor, it is important to understand proper bankroll management.
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