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п»їSuper Bowl 2021 odds, predictions, spread, line: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs expert picks, NFL betting favorite, prop bets.
Super Bowl LV is just one day away and the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to play on football’s biggest stage. Tom Brady will try to add to his NFL record book, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Brady did it with the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
See below for odds, picks, analysis and more for the 2021 Super Bowl. Plus, click here to get an EDGE with Rotoworld Premium for betting trends, live odds and more.
Super Bowl 2021 odds, favorite, spread, line.
According to PointsBet, the Kansas City Chiefs are this year’s favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the coveted Lombardi Trophy. See more on the point spread, moneyline and points total below:
Super Bowl 2021 prop bets.
Super Bowl LV expert picks, predictions.
Hayden Winks’ picks: The Super Bowl opening line started at Chiefs -3 with an over/under of 57.5 points, and I took the Chiefs and the under immediately after projecting a 30-24 final. The under is my favorite bet right now between the sides and total for a few reasons. Mike Florio’s pick via ProFootballTalk : Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27 (Read analysis here, plus see more picks and predictions) Chris Simms’ pick: Chiefs to win over Buccaneers (Click here or watch the video above for Simms’ final score prediction) Peter King’s Super Bowl LV preview.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Week 12 matchup (Rotoworld)
The Week 12 Final Score Is Misleading.
The final score could’ve been closer to 38-24 if the Chiefs hadn’t coughed up a red zone fumble and settled for two red zone field goals, if the Chiefs kept their foot on the gas in the second half instead of chewing clock, or if Mike Evans hadn’t scored two garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This game was a textbook example of how the final score doesn’t tell the full story.
Super Bowl LV player projections from Hayden Winks (Rotoworld)
Kansas City Chiefs projections.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB : Patrick Mahomes‘ projection looks crazy � nobody ever projects for 350 yards � but the Chiefs are very likely to throw 35-50 times against the Bucs. (Projection here) Chiefs Wide Receivers : WR Tyreek Hill went so nuclear against the Bucs in Week 12 (12-263-3) that I spent the 30 minutes it took to clip all of his touches from that game (video). The Bucs switched up their coverages then, but Hill kept getting open. I don’t think the Bucs have a single corner capable of hanging with Hill when they go to Cover 3 or Cover 1 man. (Projection here)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers QB: Tom Brady also projects well. The Bucs may run the ball early � Kansas City’s defense faced the 28th-highest neutral pass rate this season because the Chiefs are typically light in the box � but Tampa’s projected game script favors a pass-heavy game as three-point dogs. (Projection here) Buccaneers Wide Receivers : Before the NFC Championship, Antonio Brown was reportedly “day-to-day”. It’s unknown if he’ll play in the Super Bowl, but I left him for now. Even at full health, Brown is not an every-down player. He lines up wide only in three-receiver sets and could even be pushed by Scotty Miller, who scored a long touchdown last game. (Projection here)
RELATED SUPER BOWL POSTS.
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How to Bet NFL 2nd Half Lines.
How to Bet NFL 2nd Half Lines.
Although most of the football strategies I discuss in this space involve betting on the full game line, there are a myriad of ways that bettors can find value and maximize their investments. One method that I don’t often mention is second half betting, which can be utilized to create middling opportunities for anybody looking to mitigate their risk.
For anybody who is unfamiliar with the concept of second half (2H) betting, it’s actually quite simple. Whenever a game goes into halftime, oddsmakers will quickly post lines for the second half of the game. This solely reflects the outcome of the second half; not the final score. These lines are only available for 15-20 minutes and this short time frame creates a unique opening for bettors.
Sportsbooks have limited time to set second half lines, and they’re typically being forced to set several lines simultaneously. This is the oddsmakers worst nightmare. With limited preparation time and an inability to pay close attention to every ongoing game, oddsmakers are more likely to make mistakes that can be exploited by sharp bettors.
My past research found that a majority of NFL bettors have taken the favorite in roughly 80% of all regular season games played in the past 13 seasons, and this has historically created value on underdogs for the full game spread. We have also found that betting against the public � particularly teams receiving less than 25% of spread bets � has been highly effective.
Unfortunately, there are significantly fewer bets placed on the second half line as opposed to the full game line, and that decreased volume adversely affects most of our contrarian strategies. As you can see from the table below, betting against the public has not been an effective strategy for second half bettors.
Since the start of the 2003 NFL season, second half underdogs have gone just 1,348-1,367 (49.7%) in regular season games. However, I found that home field advantage continues to be overvalued by casual bettors. Over that same time period, road teams have gone 1,400-1,294 ATS (52.0%) on the second half spread.
It’s worth noting that although second half underdogs have struggled, there has been value taking big second half ‘dogs. Contrarian betting means going against the grain and buying on bad news, which includes backing the perennial cellar dwellers and fading the league’s top teams.
Using Bet Labs software, I found that second half underdogs of at least 7-points have gone 131-90 ATS (59.3%) in regular season games. That win rate improves noticeably in conference games, where the familiarity between teams levels the playing field.
The win rate for teams fitting these criteria is slightly higher for road teams than home teams, but it has been profitable regardless of venue. I should also point out that most of these past matches were large underdogs on the full game spread who were winning at halftime. In fact, 63.3% of these past matches were double-digit underdogs on the full game spread while 68.3% outscored their opponent in the first half.
This was an important development because my analysis on NBA second half betting found that public bettors will almost always gravitate towards the team that’s trailing at halftime � especially if they were favored on the full game spread. When the favorite is losing at halftime, their second half spread will always be more attractive than the closing full game spread.
Casual bettors believe they’re getting an excellent number at halftime � one that wasn’t even available before the game. However, they don’t seem to concern themselves with the first half results. If the Patriots closed as 10-point favorites and they’re losing by 7-points at halftime, the second half line may open New England -7. For many bettors, it’s tantalizing to take an elite team as a pick ’em when the closing line was ten points worse. This is flawed logic since each half needs to be treated as a separate event.
I believed that based on this tendency and the ability of oddsmakers to shade their lines to account for public perception; there would be tremendous value taking second half teams that are leading at halftime.
After sorting through our historical archive, I found that there has been a direct correlation between large first half leads and higher winning percentages. The table below examines the performance of teams that are winning at halftime using several key numbers for football bettors.
For the sake of comparison, I chose to examine two different criteria:
First half margin: The team’s margin of victory in the first half First half spread margin: The team’s margin of victory as compared to the first half spread.
First Half Margin.
First Half Spread Margin.
It’s interesting to note that for both the first half margin and first half spread margin, there’s a direct correlation between larger halftime leads and an increased return on investment (ROI). That goes against the popular belief that teams who struggle in the first half are likely to make the necessary halftime adjustments or score a meaningless, last minute touchdown to pull off the backdoor cover.
We already knew that favorites have offered a slight value on the second half line, but what happens when that favorite is also winning by at least 10-points?
Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu, helped provide some insight into public betting patterns. “In general, public bettors do side with the team that is trailing, and it becomes an overwhelming majority if the trailing team was favored to begin with,” said Cooley. “The square player is usually hesitant of backing the team up big because they’ve already missed a better number.”
Essentially, casual bettors are unwilling to take big favorites on the second half line because they feel like they already missed their opportunity and/or they are unwilling to double down on their original bet. They may also be more hesitant about taking second half favorites with a large lead because they are looking for a middling opportunity.
As an example, let’s say you have already bet on the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) against the Los Angeles Rams. If the ‘Hawks are leading by 14-points at halftime, you’re in great position to win your bet � but there’s always the chance that Rams turn things around and cover the spread. However, you can easily mitigate that risk by betting the second half line.
Since bettors are likely to take the favorite on the full game line, it is increasingly likely that they will take the underdog on the second half line in order to create this middle opportunity. That said, oddsmakers won’t typically adjust their second half spreads to prevent middling opportunities.
“Middles will be available at halftime regularly so we won’t shade based on that opportunity,” according to Cooley. “Where we might shade is if we have a ton of liability on one side of a spread or total. Also, we may shade a bit if a sizeable favorite is losing.”
This was an intriguing statement because favorites that aren’t winning at halftime have gone just 563-590 ATS (48.8%) since 2003. When they’re favored by at least 6-points on the full game spread, the record drops to 177-221 ATS (44.5%). When they’re favored by at least 10-points, the record drops to 49-73 ATS (40.2%). By simply betting against these sizeable favorites, second half bettors would be able to capitalize on these lines that have been artificially inflated to account for public perception.
To summarize, these are three of the most effective strategies for NFL second half spread bettors:
Take large second half underdogs. Take teams that are winning big at halftime. Fade big pre-game favorites that are losing at halftime.
It’s true that there are substantially fewer bets placed on the total as opposed to the spread, but there’s still tremendous value for opportunistic second half bettors. Since 2003, second half overs have won at a 50.3% rate. When the opening second half total is 20 or less, that win rate improves to 53.1%. When the first half total didn’t go over, that win rate leaps to 55.5%.
Historically there has been more value betting overs when there’s a low total, and that trend persists on the second half line. We always stress the importance of buying on bad news to capitalize on the public’s tendency to overreact to recent events, and clearly bettors assume that a low-scoring first half is an indicator of a low-scoring second half. Contrarian bettors can capitalize on this sentiment by taking the over after a low-scoring half.
All of the trends and systems mentioned are available in the Bet Labs Think Tank , and can be copied by any active subscriber. Skeptical about signing up? Our readers can create up to five different NFL spread systems for free!
We don’t offer second half odds on our free NFL odds page, but that information is available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers. Interested in viewing real-time odds, public betting trends, Best Bet picks, Bet Signals and countless unique sports betting tools? Take Sports Insights for a test drive by signing up for a 4-day Pro trial.




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