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Best NFL underdog bets and predictions of Week 9.
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The first portion of the climb is complete, and we’re back on level ground here in underdog corner.
A rough start to the season left us with a 2-10 record following the first four weeks of underdog selections, but we’ve gone 10-2 in the four weeks since to get back to .500 at 12-12 on the season.
Last week produced our second straight 3-0 weekend as the Chicago Bears , Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos all came through as underdog plays, with the latter two winning outright.
Of course, a .500 record in the single-bet sports wagering world means you’re still in the red, so there is still work to be done, starting with Week 9.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 9.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:50 a.m. ET.
The 1-7 Giants are a league-leading 4-0 against the spread as road underdogs this season and 8-3 since the start of the 2019 campaign. Going back even further, the Giants have covered a league-best 18 times (18-6) as road dogs since 2017.
During that same span, Washington is only 4-7 (.364) ATS as a favorite and now finds itself giving points for the first time this season and for only the third time in its last 32 contests overall.
The Giants prevailed 20-19 when the two teams met three weeks ago in New Jersey, and it’s not hard to envision N.Y. completing the season sweep with another narrow win Sunday.
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Through Week 8, we made 24 underdog selections, and a full quarter of those picks have been on the team playing the Saints. That’s proved to be profitable as we’ve gone 4-2 fading New Orleans, taking ample advantage of the overvalued Saints’ 2-5 ATS record (tied for the fourth-worst mark in the league).
This week, though, we’re switching sides for Sunday night’s monster NFC South clash in Tampa and backing these Saints against QB Tom Brady and Bucs, who are 6-2 overall but a meh 4-4 ATS.
The Saints find themselves as underdogs for the first time this season, and they’ve been boffo in this situation during the Sean Payton/Brees era (since 2006) with a 44-28-2 (.611) ATS record, including a league-best .875 ATS winning percentage (7-1) when getting points since 2018.
We still like Brady and Co. to avenge their 34-23 Week 1 loss in the Big Easy, but we’ll swoop up the 4.5 points and bank on the Saints keeping things close Sunday night.
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NFL Underdog picks.
The home of our best NFL underdog picks from this week’s NFL games. Everyone loves an underdog, or so they say, but the public money tends not to agree. The casual bettor or the public money often comes for the star franchises, the favorites, those with the big names, regardless of home many points they have to concede to the barking dog. Finding the right spots to wager against the public money and be with the NFL underdogs both against the spread and straight up can be profitable. Our expert NFL handicappers are here to just do that, split the barking dogs from the barking mad, bringing you the best free NFL underdog picks from this week’s NFL action.
Looking for those longshot plays on the Super Bowl? Check out our Pickswise Super HUB forour best Super Bowl prop bets, Super Bowl parlays , and all of the latest Super Bowl odds .
NFL Underdogs.
What are our underdog NFL picks.
Our underdog NFL picks are our best picks against the sportsbook favorites from this week’s NFL games. An underdog is a sleeper, a team that is not expected to win by the sportsbooks, they’ll be the team with the bigger odds in the Moneyline, and the team receiving points against the spread. The NFL is built on parity, and we’ve seen teams go from losing records to Super Bowl champions within the space of a year, with draft orders and salary caps both designed to level the playing field, anyone can beat anyone in the NFL, with upsets a regular occurrence.
2019 was the year of the NFL underdog, with underdogs going 131-116-9 against the spread and 90 underdogs winning straight up, both of which show a profit. Finding these spots isn’t easy with most NFL spreads set at around a field goal, but our expert NFL handicappers spend hours researching every NFL game of the season. We take an in-depth look at key statistics, matchups, match conditions, home and road form, team news, and much more to determine the best NFL underdogs picks for this week’s NFL games.
Reasons to bet the NFL underdogs.


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Best NFL underdog bets and predictions of Week 17.
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Navigating the Week 17 NFL wagering landscape is always a tricky one. Adding in the uncertainties of the 2020 season makes it even that much tougher. Below, we’ll highlight three NFL underdog betting picks and predictions for Week 17.
Which teams are motivated, and which are ready to get the season over with?
Who’s resting players, and which players secretly will be “resting” on the field?
Then throw in the weekly batch of key-player injury/COVID-19 issues and lame-duck coaching situations, and it makes an unpredictable sport even more so.
The good news here in underdog corner, though, is that we have a solid shot of doing better than we did a week ago as our Week 16 selections (the Detroit Lions , New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams ) all failed to cover. That puts our season record at 21-26-1 and a second straight above-.500 finish sadly out of reach.
Here’s hoping, though, to end a down year on a high note.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 17.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The 11-4 Saints have wrapped up a fourth straight NFC South title and still have a shot at earning the NFC’s coveted No. 1 seed.
The 5-10 Panthers, meanwhile, have nothing on the line but pride. Head coach Matt Rhule’s crew has shown plenty of it of late, covering the spread in four of their last five games; the Panthers are tied for the league’s third-best ATS record for the season at 9-6.
The Panthers gave the touchdown-favored Saints all they wanted in a hard-fought 27-24 New Orleans home win in Week 7. If Carolina can keep Saints RB Alvin Kamara from running absolutely wild as he did with 172 total yards and 6 touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day, QB Teddy Bridgewater and Co. should be able to keep things close and get the cover Sunday in Charlotte.
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It’s much the same situation here: One team (10-5 Tennessee) has lots to play for (a win clinches the AFC South title) while the other (4-11 Houston) would seem to be an easy mark in the midst of a four-game losing streak.
The Texans typically play the Titans tough, though, covering the spread in nine of the last 14 meetings and winning eight of them outright.
One of Tennessee’s wins and covers came in the most recent matchup, a 42-36 overtime tussle in Week 6 best remembered for Houston’s interim head coach Romeo Crennel’s ill-fated decision to try to put the game away with a two-point conversion up seven with 1:50 to play in regulation.
The Texans may not have quite enough to knock off the visiting Titans Sunday, but we’re banking on QB Deshaun Watson , DE J.J. Watt and Co. displaying enough fight to get the cover. Take Houston and the touchdown-plus.
Yep, we’re going for the trifecta here, taking a third losing “home” team with nothing to play for against a favored division opponent looking to better its postseason standing.
Seattle (11-4) clinched the NFC West crown with last week’s 20-9 win over the Los Angeles Rams but only has a slim chance of overtaking the Green Bay Packers and Saints to earn the NFC’s top seed.
The defending NFC-champion 49ers (6-9) are closing out an injury-ravaged season in their interim home away from home in Glendale, Ariz., but don’t figure to bow out without one final fight. Just witness their 20-12 upset win over the rival Arizona Cardinals a week ago which has thrown the Cardinals’ postseason hopes in serious question.
Go with the Niners and the points.
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