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п»їMarch Madness Betting Odds 2021.
NCAA Tournament Betting Guide.
The 2020-21 NCAA college basketball season tipped off on Nov. 25. That began a four-and-a-half month journey that will culminate with the 2021 Final Four. This year’s March Madness tournament will take place at one centralized location due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Last season, the NCAA Tournament was canceled. It had survived World War II, Black Monday, and half a dozen virus outbreaks; but for the first time since 1939, the NCAA would be without a true champion.
The cancelation of March Madness was not only a major blow to TV viewership and ticket sales, but it erased the biggest sports betting event of the year. The American Gambling Association (AGA) reported that $8.5 billion was bet on the 2019 March Madness tournament. According to Legal Sports Report , sports gambling in the US jumped an average of 6.8% through the beginning of 2020 following a swath of passed legislation decriminalizing sports gambling. Based on those numbers, it can be projected that the cancelation of the NCAA Tournament lost nearly $9.1 billion in bets.
With the historic decision to call off the NCAA Tournament firmly in the books, let’s take a look ahead to the next basketball season, where it’s never too early to speculate.
March Madness futures odds.
Operators will undoubtedly have a generous array of wagering options on each March Madness game, including moneyline bets, point-spread bets, over/under bets, parlay bets, prop bets, teasers and in-play bets.
Here is a look at March Madness odds for 2021.
To view more NCAA national title odds, go to DraftKings Sportsbook , FanDuel Sportsbook and/or BetMGM .
NCAA title odds: Futures report.
The Favorites.
The Next Group.
The Longshots.
March Madness betting sites.
How the NCAA Tournament works.
March Madness is a 68-team, single-elimination tournament that annually crowns college basketball’s NCAA Division 1 men’s national champion.
The event is aptly named, considering it features a frenetic 67 games over a 19-day period. The participating schools are announced on “Selection Sunday”, along with the exact seeding and brackets.
The annual college basketball rite of spring is sports betting’s most prolific multi-day event. Below you’ll find the current betting odds for the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, along with key tournament details and betting strategy to help you during the month-long madness.
The first 32 teams to gain entry into the tournament do so automatically by winning their conferences. The remaining 36 slots are filled by “at-large” teams. A 10-member selection committee consisting of athletic directors and conference commissioners undergoes an arduous and multi-layered process to determine the 36 at-large teams and subsequently finalize seeding and brackets.
This year, the committee will employ the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as its primary sorting method for determining at-large entrants. The NET replaces the RPI (Rating Percentage Index), which had been utilized since 1981.
The NET utilizes the following metrics:
Game results Strength of schedule Game location Scoring margin Offensive and defensive efficiency Quality of wins and losses.
The NCAA has a detailed, step-by-step breakdown of seeding and bracket protocol on this page within its website.
March Madness betting history.
The first NCAA basketball tournament took place in 1939 in Evanston, Illinois. Since then, 36 teams have won it all and five teams have won the tournament at least five times (Indiana, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, UCLA). Since seeding began in 1979, number-one seeds have won the tournament 24 times and have accounted for almost 49% of all championship appearances. Just three times has a team seeded lower than four won the title, and no team seeded below eighth has won, nor made a championship appearance.
Since betting lines were released for NCAA tournament games in 1985, underdogs have covered 44% of the time, winning outright 29% of the time. Games have gone under the total in 56% of games. Since 2010, games have gone under the total in 70% of games and favorites have covered in seven out of ten games. Three teams have won more than one championship since 2010 (Duke, UConn, Villanova), but none have won back-to-back titles (despite Butler & UNC appearing in back-to-back title games).
Since 2000, the top overall seed has made the championship game just four times but won the game three of those times (75%). In total, top overall seeds in the tournament have comprised of just 8% of the total Final Four teams (missed 13 out of 20 years). Besides 1-seeds, 2-seeds have the most championship appearances since 2000 (7 times), followed by 3-seeds (6 times), and 5- and 8-seeds (2).
Just eight percent (52/640) of all Sweet 16 teams have been seeded 11 or lower, and only 2.8% of teams in the Elite Eight were seeded 11 or lower. Four 11 seeds advanced to the Final Four (Loyola Chicago, 2018; VCU, 2011; George Mason, 2006; LSU, 1986). UMBC is the only 16-seed to upset a 1-seed in the tournament’s history (2018), and just eight 15-seeds have prevailed (5%). In 2015, two 15-seeds upset 2-seeds (25% of all such upsets) and two 14-seeds upset 3-seeds.
Using historical data when filling out brackets and betting March Madness, err caution; stats should be used in the long-run but when choosing individual games, be sure to study matchup statistics. The most important thing to remember, though, is this is March Madness, and anything can (and will) happen.
Tournament betting strategies.
The historical ATS data for each team in tournament play is just one of countless data points that can constitute March Madness betting research. Other factors that can hold considerable relevance include:
A team’s late-season performances, including in their conference tournament Key injuries A team’s defensive proficiency, as this typically has more carryover into tournament play than a high-powered offense “Fading the public” when the line appears to be significantly affected by a team’s popularity, as opposed to actual recent performance Examining various tournament-specific historical trends, such as how high-seeded mid-majors have done in each round in terms of straight-up wins and losses.
Seed Wins Losses Pushes Win % 1 27 25 0 51.92 2 22 27 3 44.90 3 28 24 0 53.85 4 28 23 1 54.90 5 22 29 1 43.14 6 22 29 1 43.14 7 29 22 1 56.86 8 27 22 3 55.10 9 22 27 3 44.90 10 22 29 1 43.14 11 29 22 1 56.86 12 29 22 1 56.86 13 23 28 1 45.10 14 24 28 0 46.15 15 27 22 3 55.10 16 25 27 0 48.08.
Where can you legally wager on March Madness this year?
Bettors physically located within the following states will be able to place a legal sports wager on March Madness games:
Then, there will be a flurry of sports betting legalization efforts unfolding at statehouses around the country during 2020 legislative sessions. Thus, hundreds of thousands of potential new bettors are expected to be part of the fun when the 2021 version of March Madness rolls around.
Based on recent progress and momentum, many states appear to have at least a fighting chance of implementing legalized sports betting in time for next year’s tournament.


Undefeated Michigan Skyrockets up the Latest Odds to Win March Madness.
With the College Football season all but over it’s time to shift our attention to College Basketball as teams enter the conference play portion of their schedule.
While Gonzaga may seem like the obvious bet to make right now, there’s a number of teams that have a lot more betting value at this point of the college hoops season.
Here are the latest top 20 odds to win the 2021 edition of March Madness as per FanDuel.
Number in parenthesis indicates school’s AP ranking as of Friday, January 8.
Odds to Win March Madness 2021.
Undefeated Michigan Could Make Noise in March.
The Michigan Wolverines began the season ranked 25th on the AP Poll and many people believed this would be a down year for the program, but they’re one of only two power 5 teams who still have their perfect records intact. After being only bumped up to the 10 spot in the latest AP rankings, Michigan went out and steamrolled No. 16 Minnesota by a final score of 82-57. You can guarantee that Michigan will find themselves in a top five spot when the Week 8 rankings are released.
Not only have they been fantastic in beating every team they’ve faced, they’ve also been great for sports bettors as they sit at 8-2 ATS which is no small feat in this year’s loaded Big Ten conference. They’ve faced two ranked teams so far this season, Northwestern and Minnesota, and covered the spread with ease against both.
Their starting center, Hunter Dickinson, has dominated down low for the Wolverines this season averaging 18 points and 8.1 rebounds per game while shooting 73 percent from the floor. Any team that wishes to challenge Michigan will have to have someone who can match up with their big man down low, which won’t be an easy task.
Drake Bulldogs are a Mid-Major Darling.
If you think this is the year that a mid-major team not named Gonzaga can take a run at the National Championship, then the Drake Bulldogs might be the team that you’re looking for. If the saying holds true that “good teams win but great teams cover” then Drake might be one of the greatest teams in the country. Heading into the January 10 weekend they boast a perfect 11-0 ATS record and they’ve yet to lose a game.
Tennessee Looks Like the Team to Beat in the SEC.
If there’s any team in the country that can slow down the Gonzaga Bulldogs offense come March, that team might be No. 9 Tennessee. Despite stumbling in a 71-63 loss to Alabama, the Volunteers boast one of the best defensive units in the country ranking 4th in opponent points per game at just 57.1.
Tennessee, who lost in the Sweet 16 in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, could find themselves as a top two seed come March if they continue to showcase their defensive prowess. It’s hard to find another team in the SEC that’s as well rounded as the Volunteers, both in their starting lineup and their bench.
Wisconsin’s Experience is Proving Invaluable Early in the Season.
Wisconsin, one of the most veteran teams in the country who returned all five starters for the 2020-2021 season, is proving to be one of the toughest challenges for every team they face this season. With three wins against ranked opponents already, their resume is more than impressive as they hold a 9-2 SU record while going 6-5 ATS.
With all five of their starters averaging double-digit points, they can be a nightmare for teams to try to match up with. Senior forward Micah Potter has proven to be their most valuable player so far this season, averaging 12.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. With a stacked starting lineup and a deep bench, teams will need to do more than just shut down the Ohio native if they hope to best the Badgers.


March Madness Betting Odds.
Ultimate March Madness Betting Guide. Learn betting strategies for a profitable tournament season. Perfect bracket contests are for chumps! Read on.
Chapters.
2021 March Madness Schedule Event Site Activity Date Selection Sunday TBS 6:00PM ET Live Stream March 14, 2021 First Four Bloomington, IN March 18, 2021 First Round Begins Various Sites, IN March 19-20, 2021 Second Round Begins Various Sites, IN March 21-22, 2021 Sweet 16 Banker’s Life & Hinkle Fieldhouses March 27-28, 2021 Elite Eight Lucas Oil Stadium March 29-30, 2021 Final Four Lucas Oil Stadium April 3-5, 2021.
Don’t Enter Perfect Bracket Contests.
Don’t pay to enter a March Madness bracket contest! It’s a losing investment. And free contests just waste your time. The chances of a perfect March Madness bracket are almost none. Different prediction models reveal daunting odds.
Random pickers face impossible odds, 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,777,808. That’s 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to Forbes.
Knowledgeable pickers will do better, 1 in 128,000,000,000. That’s 1 in 128 billion, according to Professor Jeff Bergen of Depaul University. He describes the calculation in this video.
Slightly Better Options.
FiveThirtyEight modeled predictions off the 2015 tournament field. Odds narrowed to 1 in 1,610,543,269. That’s still 1 in 1.6 million for highly capable sports handicappers!
Warren Buffet, the oracle of Omaha, famously offered $1 Billion to any Berkshire Hathaway employee with a perfect bracket. A consummate numbers man, Buffet knew he would never pay. And he was right!
You’re more likely to be killed by a vending machine than predict a perfect bracket. Find out other more likely occurrences in our odds tables below.
How to Win March Madness Betting.
Profit from a host of March Madness betting opportunities.
1. Fade The Public Against the Spread.
Recreational bettors frequently bet popular teams during March Madness. Lines are ignored. They believe big names like Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky will all have blowout wins. Money flows in for these teams.
Suppose Duke vs. Virginia opens Duke -10. Duke must win by 10 or more points.
First research Virginia’s record against the spread. Check how often they’ve covered as underdogs.
Second check the line. Suppose it’s just moved to Duke -13.5. This indicates the public likes Duke. Remember the sportsbook wants to balance its action. Making it harder for Duke to cover encourages action on Virginia. Should you still follow the public? No!
Take Virginia if they’ve consistently won against the spread. Bet against the public when line moves present an opportunity!
One 2008 bettor discovered a profitable relationship. A 0.5 pt line increase for the favorite with 65% or more public taking the favorite lost against the spread 80% or more. That means he took the underdog ATS to win. Read more here.
Tip Wait until 30 minutes before tipoff to see which underdogs get action. This is sharp money coming in. Bet with the sharps.
2. Spread and Total Straight Bets.
Carefully shop sportsbook lines. Your efforts will be rewarded!
Identify good total betting opportunities from a sportsbook’s spread and total numbers. See our calculation here. An edge exists if the calculation reveals an inconsistency.
If the projected total is under the sportsbook’s total, bet the under. If the projected total is over the sportsbook’s total, bet the over.
Finding good spread bets isn’t hard if you can handicap college basketball. Look for matchups where the sportsbook’s spread overestimates a favorite’s ability to cover. Here you’ll take the underdog.
Also look for matchups where the sportsbook’s spread underestimates a favorite’s ability to cover. Here you’ll take the favorite. It’s OK to be a chalk eater. A small win is better than a big loss.
Tip Review each team’s seasonal performance against the spread here.
3. March Madness Prop Bets.
Will a #1 seed win the tournament?
Those numbers mean Yes bets $120 to win $100. No bets $100 to win $160.
Analyze historical trends and bet smart. Between 1985-2016 a #1 seed has won 61.2%, 19/31 times. It’s not a sure thing. #2 Villanova fans still celebrate upsetting #1 North Carolina 77-74 in 2016. 🙂
But it is more likely than not. 61.2% occurrence over 31 years is somewhat reliable. Bet Yes $120 to win $100.
How many #1 Seeds will make the final four?
Hoping all 4 #1 seeds make the Final Four? It’s happened once since 1985, 4% of the time. That’s why $100 wins $2,000. That’s a risky longshot.
These props combine three different elements which don’t rely on sportsbook lines.
One is the tournament seeding process. Stay on top of Selection Sunday! Minor rule changes have been made over the years. Understand why teams get top seeds.
Two are historical occurrences discussed above. Some are reliable. Some are not.
Three is each team’s potential regardless of its seed. If a #1 team is over-seeded don’t bet that all 4 #1 seeds will make the Final Four. If a #3 team is under-seeded bet at least 1 #3 team will make the Final Four.
Tip Review past Final Four appearances by seed. See our table below.
4. Ignore Early Round #1 and #2 Seed Parlays.
Not worth it : All #1 moneyline 4 team parlay. Might be worth it: All #1 and #2 moneyline 8 team parlay.
A #1 seed has only lost once. That was in 2018 when #16 UMBC beat #1 Virginia 74-54.
Otherwise, a 4 team moneyline parlay should be easy money, right?
Not if you want to bet $1000 to win $50. It’s nearly a sure thing. But it wastes your bankroll. Most sportsbooks don’t offer moneylines for these games.
A #1 and #2 seed 8 team parlay would pay better. This assumes ML odds are available for each game. Sharp books might offer them. Payout could be better, $100 to win $40.
Remember you run the risk of a #2 upset. This has happened! See tables below.
Consider reviewing your sportsbook’s March Madness prop bets. These obvious winners could be packaged differently with less favorable odds. Don’t bet them blindly.
Tip Stick to early round straight bets or lower seed parlays. Oddsmakers are well aware which teams are likely to win. Obvious winning bets will pay nothing and tie up bank roll.
Best March Madness Buzzer Beaters.
It ain’t over till it’s over!
March Madness Betting Tips.
Refresh your bankroll before the tournament begins. Deposit early to avoid last minute credit card processing glitches. Don’t take March Madness sportsbook bonuses if they’ll hurt your profit potential. Bonus play through requirements don’t justify the headache. This is another way sportsbooks claw back profit from recreational bettors. Shop college basketball lines at multiple sportsbooks. SB3 has live odds here. Search for under-seeded parlay opportunities during early rounds. #1 and #2 team parlays will not have favorable moneyline odds. Look at teams seeded #4-#12. Don’t ignore good prop bets. Some are favorable to savvy bettors. Always visit your sportsbook’s prop bet page before March Madness begins.
NCAA D1 Basketball Tournament History.
The first NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament took place in 1939. Seeding began in 1979. Tournament format has changed over the years with gradual inclusion of more teams. 68 teams have participated since 2011.
32 teams receive automatic bids if they are conference champions. 36 additional teams are picked on Selection Sunday. The selection committee is comprised of 10 members serving 5 year terms.
Seeds are determined in sets of 4. Teams 60-68 must play-in to the tournament for seeds between 11-16 depending on selection committee ranking. These equally seeded teams, or “teams on the bubble”, battle each other for an automatic tournament berth.
In 2012 it was revealed the committee ranks teams 1 to 68. They assess the likelihood a team can win the tournament. Despite these expert predictions, the occasional Cinderella team has lasted longer than expected.
Most games are nationally televised. TV audiences for the Final Four are second only to the Super Bowl in annual viewership. This makes March Madness Betting particularly exciting. Popular sports commentators like Dick Vitale, known for his energy, insight and voluble banter have made their careers on March Madness. Vitale famously exclaimed, “It’s Awesome, Baby!”.




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