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п»їMonday Night Football Betting Preview: Odds, trends, picks for Bills-Patriots.
As we roar toward the finish line of this crazy year, the final Monday Night Football game of the 2020 NFL season is upon us. The scorching-hot Bills (11-3) take their prime-time tour to Foxboro to face the stumbling Patriots (6- at Gillette Stadium. The Bills come in as -7 road favorites (-330 ML), and the over/under currently sits at 46 total points.
This matchup seems fitting, as these odds would probably seem upside-down any other year. But 2020, as we all know, has been quite different in many ways. And for coach Bill Belichick’s Patriots, it has been an abject failure. Usually dominant in the second half of the season, the Pats have lost two games in a row, scoring 15 points combined in the process, and they saw themselves eliminated from postseason contention for the first time in 11 years. There seems to be plenty of humble pie to go around in New England right now.
Meanwhile, the Bills are riding high behind breakout star QB Josh Allen. They have won four games in a row and seven of their last eight, with the only loss coming on a last-second Kyler Murray Hail Mary in Week 10. Buffalo has gone undefeated against its AFC foes, and only the Pats tonight and the Dolphins next week stand between the Bills and the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
As always, we at BetQL are here to break down this Monday night matchup with a comprehensive betting preview. We will provide you with a full array of odds, trends, predictions, and top bets, so you can win big and help Santa pay off some credit card bills.
MNF INJURY UPDATE: Damien Harris.
Bills-Patriots Betting Preview.
Bills Outlook.
One of the hottest teams in football right now hails from Buffalo, which happens to be of the coldest cities in the nation. And in a sick twist of fate, one of the most insane, die-hard fan bases in the NFL has been torturously forced to watch from home as their Bills serve as a beacon of stability on the football field.
Josh Allen, Buffalo’s trusty young quarterback, has put together a third season that should merit MVP consideration (yeah, I said it!). The Wyoming product has led Bills Mafia to their first AFC East title since 1995 when Allen was still in his mother’s womb back in his home state of California.
Mainstream audiences might have just clued into the football greatness Buffalo has conceptualized behind Allen and fourth-year Bills coach Sean McDermott, who has been with the QB since GM Brandon Beane drafted him. But the NFL has been aware for some time now. The Bills are rounding out a run of four-consecutive nationally televised contests, and they’ve steamrolled every opponent during the tour to the collective scoring tune of 108-58. Their path of fury last struck Denver, where they bewildered the Broncos 48-19. Allen completed 28-of-40 passes (70 percent) for 359 yards and two touchdowns and ran in another two scores.
The 24-year-old QB has accounted for 10 TDs in Buffalo’s past three games, all the while smashing to pieces every personal statistical season record. He has thrown for 30 TDs and 4,000 passing yards while maintaining a 104.2 QB rating (all easily career highs). He’s also been sacked on a career-low 4.7 percent of passing plays, and his career-low 1.8 interception percentage has helped him stay at just nine picks, the same number of picks he had in 2019 when he threw 80 fewer passes.
Allen enjoys a group of already-successful wide receivers, but he has arguably made each one of them better this season. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo’s prized offseason acquisition, leads the NFL with a career-best 111 catches. He also has a career-best 1,314 receiving yards and 75.5-percent catch rate. Surprisingly, he has a modest five touchdowns, but that’s mostly due to the fact that Allen spreads the ball around so effortlessly in the red zone.
Rookie and fellow receiver Gabriel Davis has found paydirt a whopping six times. Veteran slot-man Cole Beasley, also having a career year, has 79 catches (and a 77.5-percent catch rate) to go with his four TDs. Three other pass-catchers have at least three scores. Veteran speedster John Brown, out since Week 10 with an ankle injury, has two TDs of his own and could return soon. Long story short, this passing offense is in full gear.
If second-year back Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss can find consistency in the running game for offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, this team will be looking at more than just a run at the conference. Leslie Frazier’s defense has even impressed as of late, allowing 19 or fewer points in three of its past four games, and forcing nine turnovers across its past five contests.
The Bills are giving their fan base a regular season that New England fans have come to expect year in and year out. They clinched their first AFC East title in 25 years with their fourth straight win last week, their second such winning streak this season. And with the Steelers loss last Monday, Buffalo now finds itself on the fast-track to the No. 2 seed. Things are good for Bills Mafia.
Patriots Outlook.
When Patriots coach and GM Bill Belichick signed Cam Newton to a discount deal this summer, he probably never expected the one-time MVP could replicate the kind of success that six-time Super Bowl winner and three-time MVP Tom Brady experienced in New England. But Belichick also likely never anticipated things could go so poorly with Newton under center.
A 10-year veteran and three-time Pro Bowler, Newton will assuredly finish with career lows in just about every category. He has just 216 completions, 2,381 passing yards, and five touchdowns in 13 starts with the Pats. He also has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 26 times. His QB rating is just 79.6, the second lowest of his career. Newton’s worst season-long rating was 75.8 in 2016, but he averaged 50 more passing yards per game that season. Similarly, the Panthers had just six wins that year, which may end up being how many New England finishes with this year.
Belichick has to be pleased with the fight he has seen in his defense and special team units. But at this point, it seems beyond time for the veteran leader to ask his coaching and managerial team for help drafting offensive talent. None of the Pats’ recent wide receiver picks have looked special, and with the exception of second-year back Damien Harris, this looks like a practice squad most of the time.
If second-year backup QB Jarrett Stidham was any good, it would be hard to fathom why he would not be playing ahead of Newton, who has been relegated to an archaic ground-and-pound style of quarterbacking.
New Englanders knew the day would come that their beloved Patriots dynasty would come to an end. They probably just didn’t realize the fall from grace would be quite so sudden and as steep as it has been.
Prediction.
With all that being said, bettors should still tread lightly with the Bills against the spread this evening. Buffalo is 6-4 against the spread as a favorite but just 2-3 ATS as an away favorite. This team has certainly been cruising in fifth gear, while the Patriots seem to be stalling (and often drifting backwards). But history has warned us against buying into heavy favorites against Bill Belichick -- in his own division -- on prime-time television.
The Patriots are just 6-8 against the spread, but they are 4-2 ATS at home and 2-0 ATS as home underdogs. They’re still scrappy, well-coached, and they always have a good game plan with an extra day of preparation. But they’re no match for Buffalo, as evidenced by their measly 12 points last week against Miami. Newton will have a great deal of trouble dueling with Josh Allen, and even if Belichick’s defense somewhat neutralizes Stefon Diggs, we could see Beasley and Davis feast.
The Model points out that while coaching New England, Bill Belichick is 18-4 coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. And while we both agree that record might be 18-5 after tonight, the Model and I have both seen crazier things happen on a Monday night (cough, Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 10, cough). Give me Buffalo in a hard-fought 26-20 win that crushes Buffalo bettors and pushes the over/under crowd.
You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!


2020 Monday Night Football Odds and Betting Angles.
Let's look at some interesting Monday Night Football betting angles and situations from the last seven seasons or even longer. In some cases it was interesting to see what was out there and who they would apply to for 2020 future odds.
Below are the 17 games scheduled for Monday Night Football this season, all of which will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Monday Night Football Odds.
Week 1 - Pittsburgh (-3.5, 4 at N.Y. Giants Week 1 - Tennessee at Denver (-2.5, 42.5) Week 2 - New Orleans (-4.5) at Las Vegas Week 3 - Kansas City at Baltimore (-2.5) Week 4 - Atlanta at Green Bay (-4.5) Week 5 - L.A. Chargers at New Orleans (-6.5) Week 6 - Arizona at Dallas (-7.5) Week 7 - Chicago at L.A. Rams (-3) Week 8 - Tampa Bay (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants Week 9 - New England (-3.5) at N.Y. Jets Week 10 - Minnesota at Chicago (-1) Week 11 - L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay (-3.5) Week 12 - Seattle at Philadelphia (-2.5) Week 13 - Buffalo at San Francisco (-5.5) Week 14 - Baltimore (-4.5) at Cleveland Week 15 - Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati Week 16 - Buffalo at New England (-2)
There are tidbits bettors should keep in mind for Monday Night Football, starting with several bigger picture things.
Monday Night Football - The Big Picture!
Since realignment in 2002, 16 of 18 eventual Super Bowl winners had WON a MNF game during that season. Also, 13 of those 18 seasons saw BOTH Super Bowl participants WIN a MNF game that year.
Numbers like that aren't completely out of left field considering the NFL assures each team will get at least one prime time game. These results were further isolated down to teams that actually won their MNF game. Obviously we won't know exactly which teams qualify to be in this trend until the end of Week 16, but it is something to keep an eye on. With the full schedule out, you can further isolate if the team you are eyeing for a future bet has a good shot at winning their MNF game.
Last year, you would have headed into the playoffs with Baltimore, Kansas City, and New England as qualifiers from the AFC, and San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Seattle from the NFC. That's half of the entire playoff field, but it's not exactly the worst play to start your playoff handicapping.
The list of teams that won't play on Monday are Miami, Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Washington, Detroit, and Carolina . Most of those teams are some significant long shots to begin with given they picked quite high in the draft, but omitting most of the AFC South is interesting.
In 6 of the last 7 seasons, at least one team MNF Opening Night winner has made the playoffs.
This trend hones in on that Week 1 MNF double header that has become a great tradition in the sport. It's one that's proved to be highly lucrative for the teams that are involved in those games and start off 1-0.
Week 1 - Pittsburgh (-3.5, 4 at N.Y. Giants Week 1 - Tennessee at Denver (-2.5, 42.5)
This year we've got Pittsburgh facing the New York Giants in the first half of the doubleheader. The second game pits Tennessee and Denver in the nightcap. History suggests that at least one of those two winners will use that win as a jumping off point for a postseason spot. Early 2020 future odds opening lines for those games sit at Pittsburgh -3.5 and Denver -2.5, respectively.
Will this trend continue, and if/how bettors decide to use this knowledge to potentially help their bankroll from Weeks 2 on are two big questions. Maybe a “win the division” future is in the cards for these two teams that come out on victorious?
Monday Night Divisional Games - Inside the Numbers.
Of the 40 MNF games that have involved division rivals over the past seven seasons, only 8 of them have been covered by home favorites.
Off the top, there were three games that did 'push' in this category, so you could argue it's 8 out of 37 games, or 11 out of 40 where you at least got your money back. Furthermore, not all of these games had home favorites, so it's important to keep that in mind as well. In fact, those numbers push this angle down to 8 out of 21 games (with three pushes) that have seen the home favorite cover against a division rival. That's still a 56% ATS win rate for fading these teams no matter how you look at it.
2020 future odds doesn't actually bring us any divisional affairs until the Patriots/Jets game on November 9th. But the following weeks spotlights Vikings/Bears, and the final three weeks of MNF action showcase Ravens/Browns, Steelers/Bengals, and Bills/Patriots. Hard to imagine anyone but potentially the Patriots being a home favorite there, so this may not be totally applicable in 2020 future odds.
MNF games featuring NFC division rivals have seen the underdog go 16-6 ATS the past seven years.
Again, not completely applicable this season as only one of those division games applies to NFC competition – Vikings/Bears – but should Chicago come out as an early favorite for that tilt, you've now got two things working against them. The home Monday Night Football favorite angle mentioned above, and now this NFC divisional underdog note as well.
Week 10 - Minnesota at Chicago (-1)
Over the past seven years, MNF divisional games that closed with a line of -3 or less has seen the underdog go 5-0-1 ATS. All five of those ATS victories being outright victories as well.
Probably, not the best of news for Chicago Bears fans. Their team could easily end up in this dreaded range if they close as favorites for against the Vikings. Depending on how the first two thirds of the season goes for the other teams mentioned earlier with MNF division games, we could see more operate under this light as well.
MNF divisional games with 50 point totals or higher over the past seven years have seen the road team go 6-1 ATS.
We'll have to wait on the 2020 future odds to settle if any of those divisional MNF matchups set up with a total in the 50's. They tend to actually be a little lower scoring as well, with the O/U record coming in at 2-5 O/U.
Non-Conference Action on Monday Night Football.
Over the past seven years, MNF non-conference games with a total of 50 or more points have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U.
Might as well begin where we left off the last notion, although this way it's completely flipped. Non-conference games tend to get 'over' support because there is next to nothing in terms of built in hatred to the game. But appears as where this truly shines is in MNF games that are expected to see points. The non-conference games on the slate include Steelers/Giants in Week 1, Saints/Raiders in Week 3, Saints/Chargers in Week 5, and Bills/49ers in Week 13.
If things go according to expectations in New Orleans, some of those Saints games could see totals over 50.
Road teams in non-conference MNF games over the past seven seasons are 19-10-2 ATS, while road favorites are 5-1 ATS.
It's interesting to note that of the 5-1 ATS road favorites record among these Monday Night Football angles, the 'over' is also 5-1 as well. That does speak to a bit of lack of defensive intensity from the home side in these non-conference games, but both marks are something to keep in mind. It's likely that three of the four games that qualify in this category will likely have road favorites attached to them.
New Orleans is likely to favored in their two AFC West road games, while Pittsburgh is already a -3 road favorite over the Giants. Backing the Saints in prime time has gained some traction in the marketplace the past few years. Adding them to a favorable role like this will only fuel them likely being the majority side once kickoff(s) arrive.


Monday Night Football Preview.
Bills at Patriots.
Each week, TheLines will provide a betting breakdown and analysis for the upcoming Monday Night Football game. We’ll look at the odds and see why they’re moving a certain way, along with breaking down the matchup and providing the week’s best prop bets.
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will face off at Gillette Stadium for a Week 16 AFC East showdown on Monday night, Dec. 28. The game marks the 122nd meeting between the teams in a series the Patriots lead 76-44-1. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 8 of this season, when Buffalo recorded a 24-21 win at New Era Field.
In that contest, the Bills’ Josh Allen threw for just 154 yards and an interception, but the backfield duo of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined for 167 rushing yards and two touchdowns (Moss) on 28 carries. Stefon Diggs also found a way to be productive despite the lackluster day for the passing attack, compiling a solid 6-92 line.
MNF odds and betting breakdown.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – 8:15 p.m. ET.
The two teams come into this divisional clash with diametrically opposite outlooks for what remains of the regular season. For its part, Buffalo already has the AFC East crown in its pocket, having clinched it with a blowout victory over the Broncos in Week 15. Meanwhile, the Patriots are officially out of the postseason after having fallen to the Miami Dolphins on the road last Sunday. The Bills can still potentially improve their overall seeding, so coach Sean McDermott will presumably approach this game with a competitive mindset regardless of his team’s guaranteed postseason spot.
The history of the line for this game reflects the belief of the oddsmakers and betting public that Buffalo has both more talent and motivation than its opponent. The line opened at Bills -4.5 late last week, and it subsequently bumped up to 6.5 after Week 15 results. It’s climbed another half-point to a full touchdown advantage for the visitors as of Friday afternoon. It is currently Bills .
The only notable short-term injury concern (the Bills’ John Brown and the Patriots’ Julian Edelman both appear to be trending toward remaining on injured reserve for at least another week) for either team comes in the form of Patriots running back Damien Harris , who’s listed as questionable as of Friday afternoon with the ankle issue that cost him the Week 15 contest against Miami.
The projected total for the contest has had very modest movement in comparison with the point spread. It sat at 45.5 points late Sunday and has only inched up another half-point since then, putting it a point over the final number for the first meeting between these clubs. The Over has a particularly poor record in New England’s home games this season, lending credence to the notion this could be a lower-scoring matchup. The total is currently .
The Bills are 9-5 (64.3%) against the spread this season, including 3-3 as a road team and 1-3 (25.0%) in division matchups. The Over is 9-4-1 (69.2%) in Buffalo’s games this season, including 4-3 (57.1%) in its road games and 3-1 (75.0%) in its division matchups. The Patriots are 6-8 (42.9%) against the spread this season, including 4-2 (66.7%t) as a home team and 2-2 in AFC East matchups. Then, the Over is 4-10 (28.6%) in New England’s games this season, including 1-5 (16.7%) in its games as a home team and 2-2 against AFC East opponents.
MNF prop search tool.
Looking to bet on props for Monday Night Football? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.
Bills vs. Patriots matchup.
Despite being without Brown for the last four games, Allen has shown impressive adaptability and has posted an 8:1 TD:INT while throwing for 972 yards over the last three contests specifically. Those types of numbers aren’t always the norm against what has been a stingy Patriots secondary this season, but New England’s loss of Stephon Gilmore for the rest of the season with a quadriceps injury suffered against the Dolphins could change that narrative somewhat this week. When Gilmore missed three games earlier this season with a knee injury, the Pats surrendered a combined five touchdown passes to the duo of the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Jets’ Joe Flacco , so there could certainly be opportunities for a red-hot Allen.
There’s an even more favorable matchup on paper for the Bills on the ground. Miami’s Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida just combined for 208 yards and a rushing TD against New England’s front seven in Week 15, while Singletary and Moss found plenty of running room in the first meeting between these teams, as alluded to earlier. The Pats check in allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (133.0) and RB yards per carry (4.70), while New England also gives up the third-most adjusted line yards per tote (4.8.
On the other side is Cam Newton – who appears set to remain in the top job under center despite the Patriots no longer having any postseason aspirations. New England’s passing game has been uneven all season under Newton and with Edelman missing the last eight contests. The Bills have given up their share of yards through the air, but they’ve tightened up at the right time of the season by giving up just 202.7 passing yards per game over the last three contests. Buffalo’s pass defense DVOA is up to a respectable No. 15 ranking as a result, placing the Bills just in the top half of the league.
Meanwhile, opposing ground games have also found success on occasion against Buffalo, which has dealt with some injuries at the linebacker position this season that have contributed to some inconsistency against the run. Currently, the Bills check in allowing 123.9 rushing yards per game on the road, along with bottom-half figures of 4.50 adjusted line yards and 4.44 RB yards per carry allowed. If Harris is able to return for this game and work in tandem with Sony Michel , coach Bill Belichick could opt to lean heavily on the run in the hopes of protecting Newton, who sports an unsightly 5:10 TD:INT, has committed six fumbles (one lost) and has taken 31 sacks. The Bills defense has been one of the league’s best at taking the ball, posting 12 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries to place them at No. 4 in the league in total turnovers forced.
Best MNF betting sites.
How to watch Monday Night Football.
ESPN holds the rights to Monday Night Football and will cover 17 games from Week 1 through Week 16.
Games can be streamed on the go on ESPN’s website or WatchESPN app with a cable or satellite subscription. Streaming services such as Sling TV also carry ESPN in many of their subscription packages.
MNF betting tips.
How to bet MNF like a sharp.
Monday Night Football can be the most highly-anticipated game of any given week in the NFL throughout the season. The extra day of preparation, media coverage and overall hype brings more attention to every aspect of the game.
The extra day of rest can allow players to return from injury, but they may also be forcing themselves back to the field before they’re truly healthy due to the added attention on the game. Look at injury reports and have an idea of what kind of a role a star player will be able to handle.
The Monday Night spot can also create discrepancies in how much rest the two teams have had. Taking the most rested team (the one with the longest amount of time since its last game) can often be a good place to find some value at the sportsbooks, especially on the spread.
Never bet a game solely because it’s the final matchup of the week and is the best thing to watch on a Monday Night. Be ready to sit it out completely and wait for next week if there’s no value popping out at books.
Frequently Asked Questions.
When does Monday Night Football start?
As always, Monday Night Football debuted with a Week 1 doubleheader. The Steelers beat the Giants in the first game of the night on Sept. 14 and the Titans edged the Broncos.
Every other MNF game from Week 2 through Week 16 of the 2020 season will begin at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.
How to stream Monday Night Football?
The ESPN website and WatchESPN app are the easiest options for those with cable or satellite subscriptions. Many streaming services such as Sling TV, PlayStation Vue and Hulu include ESPN in most of their plans.
What is the highest-scoring Monday Night Football game ever?
The Rams’ 54-51 victory over the Chiefs in Week 11 of the 2018 season was the highest-scoring MNF game of all time. The 105 combined points topped the 95 points scored by the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins in 1983.
Who are the MNF announcers?
ESPN moved on from Joe Tessitore after two years and will now implement longtime SportsCenter anchor Steve Levy as the play-by-play man for MNF. Levy will be joined by former NFL quarterback Brian Griese and former NFL safety Louis Riddick .
John Parry remains as the rules analyst, and Lisa Salters returns as the sideline reporter.
Who was the original Monday Night Football broadcast crew?
The original MNF broadcast crew on ABC in 1970 was made up of Keith Jackson, Howard Cosell and Don Meredith. Many cycled through the crew before Al Michaels took over as play-by-play commentator from 1986 through 2005. His color analysts included Frank Gifford, Dan Dierdorf, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, Dennis Miller and John Madden. Mike Tirico assumed play-by-play duties with Tony Kornheiser, Joe Theismann, Suzy Kolber and Michele Tafoya filling out the crew when ESPN took over the rights in 2006. Jon Gruden replaced Kornheiser in 2009 until he returned to the sidelines as head coach of the Oakland Raiders last season.
Bet with your head, not over it. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.


Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Odds, trends, picks for Steelers-Bengals.
The Steelers (11-2) visit the Bengals (2-10-1) at Paul Brown Stadium this evening in the penultimate 2020 broadcast of Monday Night Football. The Steelers are whopping 14.5-point road favorites (1010 ML), and the over/under has settled at 40 total points.
The Steelers started the season with little adversity, winning their first 11 games and residing atop the AFC standings with the defending-champion Chiefs. However, they have stumbled a bit as of late, losing 23-17 to Washington at home two weeks ago and then falling 26-15 in Buffalo last Sunday night.
Pittsburgh likely welcomes the trip to Cincinnati to battle their divisional foes, whose hardships this season have been plentiful. The Bengals lost 2020 No. 1 pick, star quarterback Joe Burrow, to an ACL/MCL tear a few weeks ago, and have experienced a plethora of injuries to their defense and running game.
So, will the Steelers coast past their fallen rivals? Or will they get inside their own heads and let the underdog Bengals surprise the world, like we so often see in prime-time games?
Steelers-Bengals Betting Preview.
The Steelers lost their slight edge on the reigning-champion Chiefs two weeks ago when they fell to Washington at home, then they dropped last week's game against the Bills. Three teams in the loaded AFC now trail Pittsburgh by just one win. Needless to say, Mike Tomlin’s squad likely views this as not only a must-win game but also as a much-needed get-right game.
Veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who will be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year with Alex Smith, has been solid in his first season back from elbow surgery. He gets the ball out of the pocket quickly, he spreads the targets to his many receivers as well as ever, and he makes winning reads, plays, and throws. The problem lately has been with his supporting cast.
Big Ben’s receivers have struggled mightily with big drops the past few games. If not for Baltimore playing without a handful of its top weapons three weeks ago, the Steelers might be on a three-game losing streak due primarily to the dropsies. And it appears to be quite contagious. Rookie Chase Claypool, who emerged as an early Rookie of the Year candidate with his big play-ability and highlight-reel TDs, suddenly crumbles in big moments. Top Roethlisberger target Diontae Johnson, usually sure-handed, has lately seemed to suffer from ‘hands-like-feet disorder’ (that is, to say, they stink). Tight end Eric Ebron also appears to have the affliction.
All kidding aside, this could be a serious problem for Mike Tomlin and OC Randy Fichtner’s squad. Worse yet, running back James Conner was a shell of his former self in his first game since recovering from COVID-19. The fourth-year back, who famously beat cancer five years ago, managed just 18 yards on 10 carries in Buffalo last week, and now he’s questionable with a quad injury. Backup Benny Snell hasn’t been much better, as he has netted 19 yards in his last 11 carries.
What seemed like a prolific offense earlier in the season now seems like a playoff disaster waiting to happen. This will be the perfect week for Fichtner and Tomlin to employ some new strategies. Get receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster out wide and not just in the slot all the time. Give James Washington more opportunities to expose single coverage. Take a shot with some designed screens for speedy rookie back Anthony McFarland. This would be the week to try some new things and see if they stick.
One thing’s for sure: Keith Butler’s defense can pretty much keep playing the way it has all season. Despite giving up 26 points to the Bills last week (the second-most points allowed by Pittsburgh this season), the Steelers still rank No. 1 in scoring defense with 237 points. They have surrendered the fewest first downs and rushing touchdowns. They rank third in total yards allowed (second in passing yards allowed), and they not only lead the NFL in interceptions, they also have the most pick-sixes.
If its offense gets it going and mounts even a 10-point lead, Pittsburgh’s defense should have no trouble preserving it. But a win by over two touchdowns, which over 74 percent of sharp money is on, seems like a tall order. Pittsburgh is just 8-5 against the spread this season and 2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Steelers have averaged 17 points per game over their past three outings, so why are so many people sure they will score 15 points more than their lowly opponents?
While the Steelers have hit some speed bumps over the past few weeks, the Bengals have long since veered off the road into a ditch. Things were already looking dismal for Cincinnati this season after notching just two wins (and a tie) in 10 games. But when No. 1 pick and QB of the Bengals’ future Joe Burrow (knee) went down, all hope for their season washed away like the tide. Now the only thing Zac Taylor’s squad has to look forward to is the 2021 NFL Draft, where unfortunately two AFC opponents (the Jets and Jaguars) are currently set to pick ahead of them.
The Bengals have been abysmal across the board this season. They score the third-fewest points, have the fourth-fewest total yards, and commit the sixth-most turnovers. They have attempted the fifth-most passes, yet rank 23rd in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs. They can’t sustain drives, or convert on third downs (37.3 percent, 29th) or in the red zone (51.3-percent TD percentage, 28th).
With Burrow sidelined, Brandon Allen (knee) has been the man coach Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan have entrusted under center. But the veteran backup registered a third-consecutive underwhelming performance in Cincy’s 30-7 beatdown by the Cowboys last week, and he endured more than just a bruised ego. Allen suffered five sacks, four QB hits, and, worst of all, one knee injury after two Dallas defenders tackled him on a short scramble. He has been ruled out of tonight’s game, forcing Cincinnati to go with Ryan Finley against a hungry Steelers D.
Finley has completed just 10-of-19 passes with no TDs and two interceptions this season, and he’s been sacked seven of the 33 times he has taken a snap. The running game hasn’t helped either. Starting back Joe Mixon has dealt with a foot injury nearly all season, last seen on the field way back in Week 6. Backup Giovani Bernard no longer seems to be good at football. Samaje Perine has shown flashes, but seems largely ineffective behind this still-struggling offensive line.
Veteran receiver Tyler Boyd and rookie standout Tee Higgins at least give Bengals fans something to be happy about moving forward, especially once Burrow returns. But right now, this team is just going through the motions trying to get through this forgettable year. Finley will put up a fight, just like he did in Cincinnati’s 16-10 loss to the Steelers sans-Roethlisberger in Week 12 of 2019. Garbage-time points will be had, and the Bengals will once again “stun” the betting public by covering, like they have in seven of their 13 games and four of their six home contests this season.
These are the games that try bettors’ souls. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true. The Bengals have had a knack for staying in games, scoring garbage-time points, or waving the white flag early enough for their opponents to ease off the accelerator.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been utterly dominant for the majority of the season, and it would be asinine to suggest the Steelers will not control this game against a third-string quarterback. But do consider that the Steelers’ recent offensive woes have translated into some physical fatigue on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in just eight of its 13 games and hit the worst patch of its season over the course of the past five weeks. Meanwhile, the Bengals have covered the spread in seven games, and gone 4-2 ATS at home. So, this may not be the best time to jump in headfirst on the Steelers as 14.5-point favorites.
I’m personally expecting the OVER at the half and a PUSH on the total. I’ll take the Steelers 27-13, in a game that will have lots of wives wondering why their husbands are screaming at the TV at 11:30 p.m. the Monday before Christmas.
Enjoy the game, have a Merry Christmas, and may all your bets this holiday season be lucrative! You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!




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