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п»їBankroll Management: The Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
When we speak about the long term success of a betting system, a major component that needs to be thoroughly planned out and implemented is bankroll management. Not just any bankroll management either. Successful sports bettors have solid, unbending rules in place as part of their system. They implement these rules along with the rules for picking the sports plays they wish to wager on. They should not waiver from the plan. The Kelly Criterion in sports betting is just one of the bankroll management solutions that is currently being used by many handicappers and is definitely worth considering when devising your own money management strategy to follow along the way.
Previously, I have written an article on bankroll management. You can read that article here. In that article I discuss the flat betting approach, the variable betting approach and the Kelly Criterion approach. For this article, I am going to further focus on the sports betting Kelly Criterion approach, as it is a very solid approach in my opinion.
About John Larry Kelly, Jr. – The Gentleman Behind the Formula.
John Larry Kelly, Jr. was born in Corsicana, Texas on December 26, 1923. He devoted four years of his life in the US Navy as a pilot and served in the World War II. Kelly studied at the University of Texas at Austin and earned a PhD in Physics in 1953. After graduation, he worked in the oil industry. He would later change jobs and became employed with Bell Labs in Murray Hill, New Jersey. During this time he would devise a formula as part of an article published in an 1956 issue of the Bell System Technical Journal . That article was entitled “A New Interpretation of Information Rate”. That formula would become known as the Kelly Criterion. Many sports bettors and Wall Street investors including Warren Buffet are advocates of this theory in terms of bankroll management. John Kelly died of a stroke in 1965, but his criterion remains imperative to many.
Why Is Bankroll Management Important in Sports Betting?
So, why is bankroll management important in sports betting? Sounds like a silly question really. After all, bankroll management is imperative in pretty much everything we do. If your salary from work is $50,000 per year, we would obviously like to budget and make that $50,000 work best it can. After all, budgeting enables you to generate a solid spending plan for the money you’ve earned. Spend a little here. Save a little there.
In sports betting, the same can be said. As our bankroll grows, so does the amount we wager per play. If we are in the midst of a losing streak, we may wager less per play and have our bankroll sustain longer. Solid bankroll management is a key component to becoming a profitable sports handicapper. Without a solid bankroll management system in place and the unwavering ability/mindset to stick with that solid system, you could end up squandering bankroll despite sustaining a decent winning percentage.
If we wish to become an effective long-term sports handicapper (and that is the goal, correct?), bankroll management is just as fundamental as selecting winners. We never want to be reckless with bankroll. Never.
The Mathematics Behind the Kelly Criterion.
So, let’s get back to the Kelly Criterion in sports betting. The Kelly Criterion is used to control the size of any potential wager. The mathematical equation is as follows:
(bp-q) / b =f.
Where “b” is the multiple of our stake we can potentially win (decimal odds less 1). “P” is the probability of winning. Conversely, “q” is the probability of losing. And “f” is the fraction of our bankroll we wish to put at stake.
Let’s say we have a $1000 bankroll. Let’s further say your well thought out and back tested handicapping system wins 55% of the time. Let’s say the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with a money line of -110. After dotting all your “I”s and crossing all your “t”s, your system has the dodgers winning.
In above equation:
b = 0.909 (-110 moneyline is 1.909 in decimal odds – 1 = 0.909)
(0.909 * .55 – .445) / .909 = .05495.
Because our bankroll is $1000 we would hence wager ($1000 * .05495) or $54.95.
Potential Issues with the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
Utilizing the Kelly Criterion does not select the plays themselves. It only provides you with a bankroll management strategy. You will still need to heavily backtest your handicapping strategy and then use a bankroll management strategy (such as the Kelly Criterion) for a chance at sports betting success. Regarding the Kelly Criterion, there are still blank spots in the equation that need to be worked out accurately. Those variables are p (for the perceived probability of winning the wager) and q (for the perceived probability of losing the wager). Your handicapping strategy will help devise these figures.
Furthermore, many believe that the Kelly Criteria has the tendency to be overly aggressive. In the above example, the $54.95 dollars is over 5% of our total bankroll. Many handicappers will not wager more than 2% of their total bankroll on a single play. For this particular reason, many bettors will utilize a strategy known as a fractional Kelly. A fractional Kelly simply uses a fractional amount (usually Ð’Ð…) of the stake devised by the Kelly Criterion.
Conclusion.
When used correctly, the Kelly Criterion can help find wagers that offer a distinct edge over the sportsbook you are wagering with and, conversely, find those bets that are not in your favor and should be avoided. Whether you decide to incorporate the Kelly Criterion, a fractional Kelly, a flat betting approach, or a variable betting strategy into your system, do it. Plain and simple. A bankroll management blueprint is vital and should be required for any decent handicapper in order to better manage the risk involved.
J. Jefferies.
The Paroli Betting System.
The Paroli betting system is most commonly used in casino games such as craps or roulette. …
How Can We Convert the Odds Ratio to Probability in Sports Handicapping?
Here is a fairly simple question with an equally simple and straightforward answer. How does one…
Bankroll Management: The Martingale Sports Betting System.
The Martingale sports betting system is a money management formula that has you double your wager…
Hello and welcome to Core Sports Betting. Since a I was a fairly small child, I have always been deep into sports and athletics. Whether playing on various teams, riding my bike to the neighborhood park for pick up games or even just watching sporting events on television, sports has always been a big part of my life. As I got older I started getting more involved with handicapping. This website’s mission is to share any and all proficient research I encounter on the topic as well as to offer some handicapping tips and tools. I hope you find this website helpful. Be well and be smart.


Bankroll Management: The Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
When we speak about the long term success of a betting system, a major component that needs to be thoroughly planned out and implemented is bankroll management. Not just any bankroll management either. Successful sports bettors have solid, unbending rules in place as part of their system. They implement these rules along with the rules for picking the sports plays they wish to wager on. They should not waiver from the plan. The Kelly Criterion in sports betting is just one of the bankroll management solutions that is currently being used by many handicappers and is definitely worth considering when devising your own money management strategy to follow along the way.
Previously, I have written an article on bankroll management. You can read that article here. In that article I discuss the flat betting approach, the variable betting approach and the Kelly Criterion approach. For this article, I am going to further focus on the sports betting Kelly Criterion approach, as it is a very solid approach in my opinion.
About John Larry Kelly, Jr. – The Gentleman Behind the Formula.
John Larry Kelly, Jr. was born in Corsicana, Texas on December 26, 1923. He devoted four years of his life in the US Navy as a pilot and served in the World War II. Kelly studied at the University of Texas at Austin and earned a PhD in Physics in 1953. After graduation, he worked in the oil industry. He would later change jobs and became employed with Bell Labs in Murray Hill, New Jersey. During this time he would devise a formula as part of an article published in an 1956 issue of the Bell System Technical Journal . That article was entitled “A New Interpretation of Information Rate”. That formula would become known as the Kelly Criterion. Many sports bettors and Wall Street investors including Warren Buffet are advocates of this theory in terms of bankroll management. John Kelly died of a stroke in 1965, but his criterion remains imperative to many.
Why Is Bankroll Management Important in Sports Betting?
So, why is bankroll management important in sports betting? Sounds like a silly question really. After all, bankroll management is imperative in pretty much everything we do. If your salary from work is $50,000 per year, we would obviously like to budget and make that $50,000 work best it can. After all, budgeting enables you to generate a solid spending plan for the money you’ve earned. Spend a little here. Save a little there.
In sports betting, the same can be said. As our bankroll grows, so does the amount we wager per play. If we are in the midst of a losing streak, we may wager less per play and have our bankroll sustain longer. Solid bankroll management is a key component to becoming a profitable sports handicapper. Without a solid bankroll management system in place and the unwavering ability/mindset to stick with that solid system, you could end up squandering bankroll despite sustaining a decent winning percentage.
If we wish to become an effective long-term sports handicapper (and that is the goal, correct?), bankroll management is just as fundamental as selecting winners. We never want to be reckless with bankroll. Never.
The Mathematics Behind the Kelly Criterion.
So, let’s get back to the Kelly Criterion in sports betting. The Kelly Criterion is used to control the size of any potential wager. The mathematical equation is as follows:
(bp-q) / b =f.
Where “b” is the multiple of our stake we can potentially win (decimal odds less 1). “P” is the probability of winning. Conversely, “q” is the probability of losing. And “f” is the fraction of our bankroll we wish to put at stake.
Let’s say we have a $1000 bankroll. Let’s further say your well thought out and back tested handicapping system wins 55% of the time. Let’s say the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with a money line of -110. After dotting all your “I”s and crossing all your “t”s, your system has the dodgers winning.
In above equation:
b = 0.909 (-110 moneyline is 1.909 in decimal odds – 1 = 0.909)
(0.909 * .55 – .445) / .909 = .05495.
Because our bankroll is $1000 we would hence wager ($1000 * .05495) or $54.95.
Potential Issues with the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
Utilizing the Kelly Criterion does not select the plays themselves. It only provides you with a bankroll management strategy. You will still need to heavily backtest your handicapping strategy and then use a bankroll management strategy (such as the Kelly Criterion) for a chance at sports betting success. Regarding the Kelly Criterion, there are still blank spots in the equation that need to be worked out accurately. Those variables are p (for the perceived probability of winning the wager) and q (for the perceived probability of losing the wager). Your handicapping strategy will help devise these figures.
Furthermore, many believe that the Kelly Criteria has the tendency to be overly aggressive. In the above example, the $54.95 dollars is over 5% of our total bankroll. Many handicappers will not wager more than 2% of their total bankroll on a single play. For this particular reason, many bettors will utilize a strategy known as a fractional Kelly. A fractional Kelly simply uses a fractional amount (usually Ð’Ð…) of the stake devised by the Kelly Criterion.
Conclusion.
When used correctly, the Kelly Criterion can help find wagers that offer a distinct edge over the sportsbook you are wagering with and, conversely, find those bets that are not in your favor and should be avoided. Whether you decide to incorporate the Kelly Criterion, a fractional Kelly, a flat betting approach, or a variable betting strategy into your system, do it. Plain and simple. A bankroll management blueprint is vital and should be required for any decent handicapper in order to better manage the risk involved.
J. Jefferies.
The Paroli Betting System.
The Paroli betting system is most commonly used in casino games such as craps or roulette. …
How Can We Convert the Odds Ratio to Probability in Sports Handicapping?
Here is a fairly simple question with an equally simple and straightforward answer. How does one…
Bankroll Management: The Martingale Sports Betting System.
The Martingale sports betting system is a money management formula that has you double your wager…
Hello and welcome to Core Sports Betting. Since a I was a fairly small child, I have always been deep into sports and athletics. Whether playing on various teams, riding my bike to the neighborhood park for pick up games or even just watching sporting events on television, sports has always been a big part of my life. As I got older I started getting more involved with handicapping. This website’s mission is to share any and all proficient research I encounter on the topic as well as to offer some handicapping tips and tools. I hope you find this website helpful. Be well and be smart.


Explaining the Kelly Criterion for Sports Betting.
The Kelly Criterion was first introduced by J.L. Kelly who was a researcher for Bell Labs in 1956. The idea behind the theorem is to maximize wealth as the number of observations (or bets) goes to infinity. Though originally created for financial portfolios, it has been borrowed by the sports betting community for bet size management.
Making Sense of the Formula.
Formula for the Kelly Criterion.
Using the Formula in an Example.
Second, we find p and q . We stated that Joey thinks the Packers have a 55% chance to win. Thus, p = 0.55 and q = 0.45.
Third, we plug this all in to find y . y = ( 1 (0.55)-0.45 ) / 1 = 0.1 . Ok, so y =0.1, what does that mean? It means that Joey should bet 10% (or 0.1) of his bankroll on the Packers. With a bankroll of $5,000, this means that he should make a $500 bet.
I Hate Math But Like the System. Is There Another Way?
There are some great calculators online that will do all of the math for you. SBR has an awesome kelly criterion calculator that even gets into a variety of outcomes. My favorite, and probably easiest one to use is this one from OddsCoach. The latter one also takes into account another variable called the “Kelly Multiplier” which can be adjusted based upon the individual’s risk tolerance.
Final Thoughts on Kelly Criterion.
Honestly, we just aren’t huge fans. As mentioned earlier, there is just too much of a drawback in attempting to estimate variables p and q . If those can’t be estimated accurately, then your chances of going bust will happen much more quickly than expected. We think there are a few simple rules that would serve a bettor much better.
a. Play what you are comfortable with. b. Never play more than 10% of your bankroll on one contest. c. An average bet (or 1 unit) should be around 4%-5% of your bankroll. d. Never have more than 50% of your bankroll out at one time as this may be a sign that you are pushing too hard.


Bankroll Management: The Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
When we speak about the long term success of a betting system, a major component that needs to be thoroughly planned out and implemented is bankroll management. Not just any bankroll management either. Successful sports bettors have solid, unbending rules in place as part of their system. They implement these rules along with the rules for picking the sports plays they wish to wager on. They should not waiver from the plan. The Kelly Criterion in sports betting is just one of the bankroll management solutions that is currently being used by many handicappers and is definitely worth considering when devising your own money management strategy to follow along the way.
Previously, I have written an article on bankroll management. You can read that article here. In that article I discuss the flat betting approach, the variable betting approach and the Kelly Criterion approach. For this article, I am going to further focus on the sports betting Kelly Criterion approach, as it is a very solid approach in my opinion.
About John Larry Kelly, Jr. – The Gentleman Behind the Formula.
John Larry Kelly, Jr. was born in Corsicana, Texas on December 26, 1923. He devoted four years of his life in the US Navy as a pilot and served in the World War II. Kelly studied at the University of Texas at Austin and earned a PhD in Physics in 1953. After graduation, he worked in the oil industry. He would later change jobs and became employed with Bell Labs in Murray Hill, New Jersey. During this time he would devise a formula as part of an article published in an 1956 issue of the Bell System Technical Journal . That article was entitled “A New Interpretation of Information Rate”. That formula would become known as the Kelly Criterion. Many sports bettors and Wall Street investors including Warren Buffet are advocates of this theory in terms of bankroll management. John Kelly died of a stroke in 1965, but his criterion remains imperative to many.
Why Is Bankroll Management Important in Sports Betting?
So, why is bankroll management important in sports betting? Sounds like a silly question really. After all, bankroll management is imperative in pretty much everything we do. If your salary from work is $50,000 per year, we would obviously like to budget and make that $50,000 work best it can. After all, budgeting enables you to generate a solid spending plan for the money you’ve earned. Spend a little here. Save a little there.
In sports betting, the same can be said. As our bankroll grows, so does the amount we wager per play. If we are in the midst of a losing streak, we may wager less per play and have our bankroll sustain longer. Solid bankroll management is a key component to becoming a profitable sports handicapper. Without a solid bankroll management system in place and the unwavering ability/mindset to stick with that solid system, you could end up squandering bankroll despite sustaining a decent winning percentage.
If we wish to become an effective long-term sports handicapper (and that is the goal, correct?), bankroll management is just as fundamental as selecting winners. We never want to be reckless with bankroll. Never.
The Mathematics Behind the Kelly Criterion.
So, let’s get back to the Kelly Criterion in sports betting. The Kelly Criterion is used to control the size of any potential wager. The mathematical equation is as follows:
(bp-q) / b =f.
Where “b” is the multiple of our stake we can potentially win (decimal odds less 1). “P” is the probability of winning. Conversely, “q” is the probability of losing. And “f” is the fraction of our bankroll we wish to put at stake.
Let’s say we have a $1000 bankroll. Let’s further say your well thought out and back tested handicapping system wins 55% of the time. Let’s say the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with a money line of -110. After dotting all your “I”s and crossing all your “t”s, your system has the dodgers winning.
In above equation:
b = 0.909 (-110 moneyline is 1.909 in decimal odds – 1 = 0.909)
(0.909 * .55 – .445) / .909 = .05495.
Because our bankroll is $1000 we would hence wager ($1000 * .05495) or $54.95.
Potential Issues with the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting.
Utilizing the Kelly Criterion does not select the plays themselves. It only provides you with a bankroll management strategy. You will still need to heavily backtest your handicapping strategy and then use a bankroll management strategy (such as the Kelly Criterion) for a chance at sports betting success. Regarding the Kelly Criterion, there are still blank spots in the equation that need to be worked out accurately. Those variables are p (for the perceived probability of winning the wager) and q (for the perceived probability of losing the wager). Your handicapping strategy will help devise these figures.
Furthermore, many believe that the Kelly Criteria has the tendency to be overly aggressive. In the above example, the $54.95 dollars is over 5% of our total bankroll. Many handicappers will not wager more than 2% of their total bankroll on a single play. For this particular reason, many bettors will utilize a strategy known as a fractional Kelly. A fractional Kelly simply uses a fractional amount (usually Ð’Ð…) of the stake devised by the Kelly Criterion.
Conclusion.
When used correctly, the Kelly Criterion can help find wagers that offer a distinct edge over the sportsbook you are wagering with and, conversely, find those bets that are not in your favor and should be avoided. Whether you decide to incorporate the Kelly Criterion, a fractional Kelly, a flat betting approach, or a variable betting strategy into your system, do it. Plain and simple. A bankroll management blueprint is vital and should be required for any decent handicapper in order to better manage the risk involved.
J. Jefferies.
The Paroli Betting System.
The Paroli betting system is most commonly used in casino games such as craps or roulette. …
How Can We Convert the Odds Ratio to Probability in Sports Handicapping?
Here is a fairly simple question with an equally simple and straightforward answer. How does one…
Bankroll Management: The Martingale Sports Betting System.
The Martingale sports betting system is a money management formula that has you double your wager…
Hello and welcome to Core Sports Betting. Since a I was a fairly small child, I have always been deep into sports and athletics. Whether playing on various teams, riding my bike to the neighborhood park for pick up games or even just watching sporting events on television, sports has always been a big part of my life. As I got older I started getting more involved with handicapping. This website’s mission is to share any and all proficient research I encounter on the topic as well as to offer some handicapping tips and tools. I hope you find this website helpful. Be well and be smart.




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