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п»їWeek 5 NFL picks, 2020 best bets from a legendary expert: This three-way parlay would pay out 6-1.
Hank Goldberg just revealed his top NFL parlay for Week 5.
It's critical to monitor NFL trends, especially after the first month of football. Home favorites are struggling so far this season, posting a 20-23 record against the spread. Some of that could be attributed to the lack of fans in stadiums, but as Week 5 looms, a number of home favorites could face challenges if recent history is to be believed. Which teams can you trust with your NFL parlays and NFL picks?
In the Sunday afternoon time slot, the Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) host the Philadelphia Eagles in the battle of Pennsylvania, while the Atlanta Falcons (-1) look to pick up their first win as home favorites against the Carolina Panthers. Amateur and professional bettors alike will make plenty of NFL bets this week, moving the NFL odds as kickoffs approach. Before you make any Week 5 NFL picks and predictions, see the NFL best bets from legendary handicapper Hammerin' Hank Goldberg over at SportsLine.
A beloved national treasure, Hammer enters Week 5 on a major heater: Over the final 10 weeks of last season and through four weeks of this season, he is 27-15 on his NFL best bets, a 64 percent cash rate.
This is the same handicapper who enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year ESPN run. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 on NFL picks against the spread.
Now, Hammer has locked in three NFL best bets for Week 5. If you parlay them, you could be looking at a 6-1 payout. You can only see them here.
Top Week 5 NFL expert picks.
Breaking down the NFL Week 5 schedule, Hammer says the Texans (-5) will handle Jacksonville for their first win. Defensively, Houston can rely on linebackers Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney for production. Cunningham ranks second in the NFL in tackles with 43, while McKinney joins him in the top ten with 37 stops already this season.
Jacksonville's offense has already allowed 13 sacks, one of the five worst marks in the NFL, and the Texans could create havoc in the front seven.
Offensively, Houston is headlined by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has 1,092 yards and six touchdowns. Watson also boasts 58 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground and, against a Jaguars defense that is tied for the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with four, the Texans should be able to protect their signal-caller. In crucial situations, Houston may also have an edge, with Jacksonville entering this week as one of the ten worst defensive teams in the league on third down, allowing opponents to convert 46.8 percent of their opportunities.
How to make Week 5 NFL parlays.
Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, also jumped on the Colts-Browns matchup of surging 3-1 teams and the battle of Pennsylvania between the Steelers and Eagles. In one of those games, Hammer says, there is a complete mismatch, creating a spread that's way off. You can only see his best bets at SportsLine.
What are Hammer's top Week 5 NFL expert picks? Which side of Colts vs. Browns and Eagles vs. Steelers do you need to jump on? Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's Week 5 NFL best bets, all from the legendary handicapper on a 27-15 heater.


Expert Week 5 NFL Picks: Tips, Advice for Confidence, Pick 'em pools.
Last week likely saw major upheaval in confidence and pick 'em pools, as underdogs won more games than favorites. That just means you need to bear down when making your Week 5 NFL picks. Fortunately, the experts at TeamRankings are here to help by identifying five games, including Packers-Cowboys, that should be on your radar.
Armed with the information below, you can make calculated bets on high-value Week 5 picks and avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk. As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Last year 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!
Review of last week's picks.
The value picks we highlighted in this post last week went 1-4, which normally sounds pretty terrible -- but not so much in a week where chaos reigned. Underdogs went an incredible 9-6 outright in Week 4, and as a result, the general public picked more losers than winners on average. In fact, the average public pick 'em entry only got 7.2 games right out of 15 last week.
Of the three teams we highlighted that were favorites early in the week (Baltimore, Chicago, Denver), our picks went 1-2, but in comparison, the public only got 1.1 wins on average from those games. So it was pretty much a wash, and we were one final Denver defensive stand away from a much better week than the public on those games.
It was a worse week for the upset picks we highlighted, as neither Washington nor Cincinnati came close to winning. However, that’s also why they are called the "value gambles" that aren’t suitable for all pools. Based on win odds, you would have only expected 0.8 wins total from those two teams, so a week in which neither win isn't a huge shock.
Expert Week 5 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools.
In order to gain the biggest advantage in your NFL pick 'em pool, you need to know not only every team's win odds (i.e. the risk involved in making a pick), but also how popular of a pick it is. It's simple: When you pick less popular teams and they win, you will move quickly up the standings.
Based on win odds and pick popularity, the five teams highlighted below either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 5 picks from your opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
It's important to remember that we're not recommending all of the picks below � especially the "value gambles". The best Week 5 picks for your specific pool depend on several factors, including pool size, rules, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks customized for you based on all those factors.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Week 5 features several teams that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win, which is a change from the past four weeks. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Minnesota Vikings (at New York Giants)
The Vikings were a popular choice last week to beat the Bears on the road, and they lost. The Giants were a popular choice to beat Washington, and they won. So, it’s pretty easy to see why the public is relatively down on the Vikings and high on the Giants this week. The Vikings, though, are a 5.5-point favorite and have a 69-percent chance of winning, according to our models. The public is picking Minnesota 68 percent of the time, so you are getting a pretty solid favorite being picked at a slightly lower rate than its odds to win.
That may not sound like a huge value, but consider this for perspective: There have been nine other games so far this season in which a team was favored by five or 5.5 points. On average, the public picked the favorite 89 percent of the time and never less than 84 percent of the time.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Cleveland is back, baby! The Browns rebounded with a huge win over Baltimore, and it looks like the public is now ready to re-embrace Baker Mayfield and company after their opening week shellacking by the Titans. Meanwhile, San Francisco was on bye last week. The public has a short memory, and out of sight often means out of mind, so it’s easy to forget that San Francisco is 3-0 and playing at home. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points and our models give them a 65-percent chance of victory, but the public is picking San Francisco 64 percent of the time. Again, may not seem like a huge value, but relative to how the public normally treats favorites, it definitely makes Cleveland an unwise upset pick.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Has the public been burned by Tennessee being so unpredictable? Probably. The Titans have won twice as underdogs and lost twice as favorites, so the public has averaged getting 0.6 picks right in games involving Tennessee this year. The Titans are a three-point favorite here yet the public has swung the other way and is taking the Bills 52 percent of the time. Buffalo put up a fight against New England in Week 4, which likely made an impression with the public. But Bills quarterback Josh Allen did sustain a concussion on Sunday and his status for this game is still to be determined, so we could see some movement in both the line and public popularity in this one.
Favorite at a reasonable price.
Most favorites are overrated by the public, but the team below looks more fairly valued in Week 5. You should think twice about picking against them -- not because we think they are a lock to win (we certainly don’t), but because other games offer more compelling upset pick opportunities.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The Cowboys are just one of several favorites that are more fairly valued than usual and are being selected by the public at far lower rates than similar favorites in recent weeks. (An upset loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints in prime time on Sunday night is likely one reason why.) Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite at home and our models give it a 64-percent chance of winning, and the public is picking them 65 percent of the time. On average, the public is picking about one more upset in Week 5 than they have until now, so it makes sense to favor playing more favorites like Dallas this week.
If you’re going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. Take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is on you.
The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, it’s probably not worth the risk. However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes, this highly unpopular underdog has a compelling profile.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)
While the public has generally leaned toward picking more upsets, there is one slight favorite that they are backing heavily. New Orleans is favored by just three points, tied for the second-smallest favorite this week. However, the public is picking them 84 percent of the time, which is the sixth-highest pick rate this week for a favorite.
New Orleans has won consecutive games as an underdog with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but the offense has not been particularly impressive (less than 200 passing yards each week). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a big road upset of the Rams. The Bucs have put up a combined 963 yards of total offense and have scored 86 points the past two weeks. Those factors explain why New Orleans is only a small favorite in this one, but the public is still very supportive of the Saints. In some pools, there is value in going contrarian against the one small favorite the public is treating more like a sure thing.
Which of these five NFL Week 5 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 5, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Minnesota or Tennessee, or you take a chance on an upset like Tampa Bay.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge.
We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!


Week 5 NFL picks, best bets from a legendary expert: This three-way football parlay pays out 6-1.
Handicapping legend Hank Goldberg just revealed his top parlay for Week 5.
A beloved national treasure, Goldberg is red-hot on his NFL best bets, going 8-4 this season after finishing last year on a 12-3 run. That makes Hammer 20-7 in his last 27 NFL best bets, a stunning 74 percent cash rate.
Already twice this season, in Weeks 1 and 3, Hammer swept his NFL best bets. Anyone who parlayed those picks was rewarded with 6-1 payouts.
This is the same handicapper who enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year run at ESPN. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 in against-the-spread picks. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
While the Saints are 3-1, they've looked lackluster offensively since quarterback Drew Brees injured his thumb in Week 2 against the Rams. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, just exploded offensively in a stunning 55-40 road upset of those same Rams.
The Saints mustered 266 yards in their 12-10 win over Dallas last week and only 265 yards the week before at Seattle. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to clear 200 passing yards in a game since replacing Brees. Goldberg is impressed with the new-look Bucs defense under Todd Bowles and knows Tampa Bay will not have to score 30-plus to keep up with this limited version of the Saints. Hammer expects a tight divisional contest, so grabbing more than a field goal is the way to go.
Goldberg also jumped all over one side of Packers vs. Cowboys, Sunday's glamorous matchup of 3-1 teams starting at 4:25 p.m. ET. The line is way off in that game, Hammer said. You need to see his NFL parlay before locking in any picks of your own.
What are Hammer's NFL Week 5 best bets? And what side of the Packers vs. Cowboys spread should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's Week 5 NFL best bets, all from the legendary handicapper who's 20-7 in his last 27 best bets.




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