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п»їFantasy Football Rankings, Week 16, 2020: Model that beat experts says start David Johnson, sit Tyler Lockett.
SportsLine's advanced computer model reveals Fantasy football start-sit advice for Week 16.
Championships are on the line in many leagues as the Week 16 NFL schedule unfolds. That means finding a reliable set of Week 16 Fantasy football rankings could be the difference between winning it all or going home with nothing. NFL injury news also plays a role this time of year. The Falcons, for example, have ruled out receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) for their Sunday matchup with the Chiefs, while Washington receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle) is also likely to watch from the sidelines.
Which players on your bench or in the free-agent pool like Mecole Hardman or Nyheim Hines can you trust this week to step in as Fantasy football picks? Before you lock in your Fantasy football lineups, be sure to check out the Week 16 Fantasy football rankings from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
When it comes to ranking players, their model beat human experts in Fantasy football last season when there were big differences in ranking. Over the course of a season, that could literally be the difference between winning your league or going home empty-handed.
Last week, the model was extremely high on Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley, saying he'd finish as a top-five player at his position. The result: Ridley recorded 10 receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown. Anybody who had him in their lineup was well on their way to a huge week.
Now, the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has revealed its Fantasy football rankings for Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top Fantasy football picks for Week 16.
One player the model is extremely high on this week: Texans running back David Johnson. With fellow running back Duke Johnson sidelined with a neck injury, David Johnson exploded a week ago, reeling in all 11 of his targets for 106 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Now, Johnson is poised to be the lone back again against a Bengals defense that has allowed productive days on the ground to running backs like Wayne Gallman (94-1), Derrick Henry (112-1), Benny Snell (84-1), and Nick Chubb (124-2). The model lists Johnson as a top-10 player in its Week 16 Fantasy football running back rankings, ahead of stars like Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, and Miles Sanders.
And a massive shocker: Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, who's hauled in 85 receptions for 920 yards and eight touchdowns this season, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 30 at his position. Lockett scored seven touchdowns over the first six games, but he's seen his productivity drop dramatically since then.
In fact, Lockett has produced just one score over his last eight contests and hasn't eclipsed 70 receiving yards during that stretch. Last week against Washington, Lockett caught four of seven targets for just 34 yards. The sixth-year wideout hasn't received more than seven targets in three of his last four games and averaged less than 8.5 yards per reception in three of his last five outings.
In addition, Lockett and the Seahawks square off against one of the NFL's toughest defenses this week. The Rams feature the NFL's top-ranked total defense, giving up just 286.1 yards per game. Los Angeles is also giving up just 192.0 passing yards per game, which also ranks first in the league. With one of the toughest Fantasy football matchups, Lockett is a player to consider putting on the bench in Week 16.
How to set your Week 16 Fantasy football rankings.
The model is also calling for a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 10 of its Fantasy football rankings. This pick could be the difference between winning big and going home with nothing. You can see who it is here.
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 16 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big-time last season.


Pete Prisco's Week 16 NFL picks: Rams rebound to upset Seahawks, Steelers and Saints get back on track.
Prisco reveals his picks for Week 16, including the Packers pounding the Titans to lock up the top seed.
Don't you just hate ties?
We had three of them with our picks against the spread last week, which meant my weekly record was 7-6-3 against the spread.
Of the three ties, all three should have been wins. The Texans, getting seven, fumbled at the 1 in the closing seconds. The Chiefs gave up a late score to let the Saints close to within three for a push, while the Washington Football Team lost by five, when in reality the number was higher than that because Alex Smith didn't play.
So that 7-6-3 record felt like a 10-6 mark for me, even if it doesn't count that way. My best bets on the Pick Six Podcast went 4-3 to up my season record to 53-36-1, tops on the podcast.
Let's keep it going with a good holiday week of picks.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints.
The Saints have lost two straight games, but Drew Brees looked more like himself in the second half against the Chiefs. That will carry over here against a Vikings defense that doesn't rush the passer. Look for the Saints defense to get back on track as well. The Saints lost to the Vikings at home in the playoffs last year, but that won't be the case in this one. Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 27, Vikings 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions.
The Bucs are playing a second straight road game, but they are the class in this game. The Lions have issues on defense and Tom Brady will take advantage of that. With so much on the line, the Bucs will be focused.
Pick: Bucs 31, Lions 23.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals.
This is a home game for both teams � since both are playing in the same stadium because of COVID-19 issues in Santa Clara. But this is technically a home game for the Cardinals. The 49ers are out of the playoff race, while Arizona badly needs this game. Motivation will be key. Kyler Murray will have a good day against the 49ers secondary to win it.
Pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 23.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders.
This is a big game in terms of the playoff chase, especially big for Miami. The Raiders will likely be playing Marcus Mariota at quarterback, which is a plus for Miami. Derek Carr has been limited with a groin injury. The Dolphins offense should be able to move the ball against a bad Raiders secondary. Miami will win it.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Raiders 27.
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs.
The Falcons are playing out the string, while the Chiefs are cruising to the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City is back home after two road victories. The Falcons have blown a lot of big leads in games, but that won't be the case here. They won't lead by much � if at all. Look for Patrick Mahomes to light up the Falcons. Blowout.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Falcons 24.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets.
The Browns are in the division race with the Steelers faltering, but they need to be careful here. The Jets played well last week in beating the Rams on the road. Cleveland is back in the same stadium after playing there Monday night against the Giants. They handled the Giants with ease, but this will be a little tougher. The Jets will hang around.
Pick: Browns 25, Jets 20.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers.
These two are both alive in the playoff chase, which makes this a big game. The Steelers are struggling in a big way to move the football, while the Colts defense has lagged some the past few weeks. Something will have to give. I think Ben Roethlisberger will make some plays down the field that have been missing. The Steelers will pull off the upset.
Pick: Steelers 23, Colts 21.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team.
If Washington wins its last two games, it wins the NFC East. Pretty simple. The Panthers are playing consecutive road games after losing to Green Bay last week. The Washington defense will get the best of Teddy Bridgewater in this one. Washington gets the first of two victories it has to have.
Pick: Washington 20, Carolina 14.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars can get the first pick in the draft with two more losses, but that matters none to the players. The problem is the players aren't very good. The Chicago defense will be all over Gardner Minshew in this game, which will lead to turnovers and short fields. The Bears will do enough to keep their playoff hopes alive with a victory.
Pick: Bears 27, Jaguars 13.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens.
This is essentially a playoff game for these two. They both have to have it. The Giants are playing off a Sunday night loss and now are out on the road, which can be tough. The Ravens seem to be getting back into form. Look for a low-scoring game with the Ravens pulling away late.
Pick: Ravens 24, Giants 10.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans.
These two are playing out the string, which is an advantage to the home team. The Texans are home for the first time in three weeks, while the Bengals are playing on a short week. Cincinnati put a lot into beating the Steelers Monday night, so this will be a letdown. Texans big.
Pick: Texans 34, Bengals 21.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers lost to the Broncos 31-30 earlier this season, so this is a chance for revenge. Justin Herbert is playing great football right now and Denver's beat-up secondary was torched by Josh Allen last week. That continues as we see a high-scoring game with the Chargers winning it.
Pick: Chargers 35, Broncos 28.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams are coming off a loss to the Jets and now must win this game to have a chance to win the division. Seattle has been improved on defense, but I expect the Rams to come in here and play well. Sean McVay will get them back on track and they will limit Russell Wilson. Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles are on the road for a second straight week with Jalen Hurts as their starter at quarterback. The Cowboys are suddenly playing well on offense. This should be a high-scoring game with the Cowboys winning it with a late touchdown. Dallas tries to stay alive in the playoff chase.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Eagles 26.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers.
This will be the running game of the Titans against the passing game of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was just OK last week, but I think he will bounce back with a big game against a bad Titans defense. Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans, but they won't keep up. The Packers will lock up the top seed.
Pick: Packers 37, Titans 27.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots.
The Bills have clinched the AFC East, while the Patriots are playing out the string. It's weird to even write that. Buffalo can still get the No. 2 seed, so it will be focused here. Look for another big game from Josh Allen. Bills keep rolling.
Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 17.


NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 16, 2020: Proven model loving Texans, Chargers.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 16 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
After winning Super Bowl 54 and signing Patrick Mahomes to a massive contract extension during the offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs have met expectations in 2020 by winning 13 of their first 14 games. Now, they'll have a chance to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the AFC playoff bracket with a win or a Steelers loss or tie. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 over the Falcons in the latest Week 16 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are two-point favorites against the Colts in the Week 16 NFL spreads. Where can you find value as you make your NFL bets, and which teams will fall flat? All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up nearly $7,900 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 16 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 16.
One of the top Week 16 NFL picks the model recommends: The Texans cover as seven-point favorites at home against the Bengals. Both teams have had difficult seasons, with Houston entering Week 16 at 4-10 overall and the Bengals at 3-10-1. However, this line would likely be close to double-digits if Cincinnati had not shocked Pittsburgh in Week 15.
Despite the thrilling win, Cincinnati is still in a precarious situation at quarterback and will have a difficult time keeping pace with a Houston offense that ranks third in passing yardage. Deshaun Watson has had a stellar year with 4,134 yards and 27 touchdowns against just six interceptions while rushing for another 394 yards and three more scores.
Watson has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of his last 11 starts, while Cincinnati ranks 25th in net yards per pass attempt allowed (6.. That's why the model predicts that Watson produces nearly 350 yards of total offense overall and scores multiple touchdowns. Meanwhile, Houston's defense records three sacks and forces a pair of turnovers in the model's simulations, helping the Texans cover well over 50 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 16 NFL predictions from the model: The Los Angeles Chargers (-3) cover at home against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have won each of their last two games, while Denver limps into Sunday's AFC West rivalry having lost five of its last seven.
Los Angeles is averaging 384.4 yards per game this season, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been sensational in his rookie season and enters Sunday's showdown with 27 touchdown passes, which is tied with Baker Mayfield for the most passing touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history. Herbert also had a ton of success against the Broncos earlier this season, throwing for 278 yards and three touchdowns.
The line opened at Los Angeles -2.5, but has moved up half-a-point. The model is calling for Herbert to throw for over 270 yards and two scores, while running back Austin Ekeler racks up over 90 yards from scrimmage. Los Angeles covers the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (4 has all the value.
How to make Week 16 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks.


Week 16 NFL picks, odds: Back Panthers vs. Ron Rivera, don't trust the Bears and more best bets.
Three picks and a cloud of trust.
Last week was a frustrating week and another example of how thin the margins are between winning weeks and losing weeks when betting the NFL. I split my total plays without anything out of the ordinary happening in either game, but it was the Chiefs-Saints game that decided our fate.
To summarize, the Chiefs dominated the game, outgaining the Saints 411 yards to 285. They led by two scores for a lot of the game, including early in the fourth quarter when a Le'Veon Bell score gave them a 29-15 lead. Then, after a couple of scores made it a 32-22 lead for the Chiefs, the Saints scored a touchdown with two minutes left to make it 32-29. It proved futile for the Saints in their bid to win the game, but it killed our cover, and we were left with a push.
That was the difference between a 2-1 week and a 1-1-1 week. Let's hope the holiday weekend is a bit kinder.
Dolphins at Raiders.
Jon Gruden has said there's a chance Derek Carr will play and that he's been taking reps in practice. Maybe he's telling the truth, but my gut tells me he just wants to make the Dolphins prepare for both Carr and Marcus Mariota. I'm betting the Dolphins see through that and are prepping for Mariota.
Now, Mariota came in to replace Carr against the Chargers and balled out. This led to a lot of talk about Mariota being in line for a possible starting job somewhere else next year. I'm not so sure. We see this a lot: a backup QB who is a lot different than the starter comes in unexpectedly and has success because the opposing defense prepared for the starter. Derek Carr is not the running threat Mariota is. Mariota caught the Chargers defense -- which isn't very good to begin with -- off guard and had a great night. The Raiders still lost. Now the Dolphins will be ready for Mariota, and odds are he won't be nearly as successful. I like the Dolphins against the spread, but I'm more comfortable attacking the Under because I don't want to trust a rookie QB as a road favorite.
Projected score: Dolphins 24, Raiders 20 Best bet: Under 47.5 (-110)
Bears at Jaguars.
Yeah, I'm not falling for it. When the Jets won last week, the world reacted by crowning the Jaguars the lucky recipient of the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. This reaction ignored the fact the Jaguars were playing the Bears this week, and the Bears are suddenly back in the playoff hunt after winning two straight against mediocre teams. My lifetime as a Bears fan lets me know that the Bears are more than capable of losing this game.
That said, the Jags do stink, so I'm not going to pick them to win. Instead, I'll take the points as the Bears are not the kind of team anybody should be trusting as more than a touchdown favorite on the road. Not with Mitch Trubisky at the helm.
Panthers at Washington.
Honestly, I just love betting on Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. He's rewarded me plenty of times before. As a starter, Bridgewater's teams are a ridiculous 24-6 ATS as an underdog. This season the Panthers have gone 7-3 ATS as dogs with Bridgewater, and that 7-3 record is his worst single-season performance. To take this a step further, when he's a road dog, Bridgewater's teams are 19-2.
Nineteen. And. Two.
That includes six straight covers this season against teams like the Saints, Chiefs, and Packers, just to name a few. Washington's been playing better in recent weeks, but they're nowhere near as good as those teams. If Teddy can cover against them, he can cover against Washington.


NFL Week 16 odds, picks: Dolphins now favorites over Raiders plus other reactions from Week 15.
Check out how the Week 16 NFL lines have changed based on what happened this past Sunday.
So, what did we learn in Week 15? First off, the Pittsburgh Steelers are even worse off than we first thought. After winning their first 11 contests, they fell to the Washington Football Team, then the Buffalo Bills and finally, Ryan Finley and the Cincinnati Bengals? Wow, this team is in danger of blowing a huge lead in the division. Speaking of big upsets, the winless New York Jets scored their first victory over the Los Angeles Rams, but with that, they also lost the potential right to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The quarterback situation in Philadelphia is also becoming more interesting. While the Eagles lost to the Arizona Cardinals, Jalen Hurts put up yet another impressive performance in his second-ever start. The NFC East as a whole also remains interesting, as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are now just one game back from that infamous postseason spot. We saw plenty of line movement on Monday, so let's take a look at some game lines.
On Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 16, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have officially entered Week 16, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of William Hill.
Week 16 line snapshot.
Dolphins at Raiders.
Current: MIA -2.5 | Reopen: MIA -2.5 | Lookahead: LV -1.5.
Why it moved: The Raiders were upset by the Los Angeles Chargers on "Thursday Night Football," but more importantly, starting quarterback Derek Carr was knocked out with a groin injury that could force him to miss some time. Marcus Mariota played fairly well in his stead, as he passed for 226 yards, one touchdown, one interception and also rushed for another touchdown, but it remains to be seen how effective this Raiders team can be with him as the starter instead of Carr. As for the Dolphins, they are rolling right now. Tua Tagovailoa moved to 6-1 against the spread as the starter as the Dolphins downed the New England Patriots, 22-12.
Fade the move? I'm rolling with this line change, and I will be placing some money on the Dolphins to cover right now just in case this line increases again. Miami is an NFL-best 11-3 against the spread this season. No other team has covered 10 games. The Dolphins have also covered four straight games while the Raiders have failed to cover the spread over their last four games.
Bears at Jaguars.
Current: CHI -7.5 | Reopen: CHI -7.5 | Lookahead: CHI -4.5.
Why it moved: The Bears defeated the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, 33-27. Mitchell Trubisky again played fairly well, as he completed 15 of 21 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The real story, however, was David Montgomery's huge game, as he rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. The Bears have now scored at least 30 points in three straight games for the first time in seven years, and it's been quite the turnaround for Matt Nagy's squad. The Jaguars, on the other hand, continue to crawl to the finish line, and were blown out by Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday, 40-14.
Fade the move? I wish I had grabbed the Bears on the lookahead at -4.5, but I think I'm still going to take the Bears at -7.5. The Jaguars are in great position to hold onto the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they just have to continue to lose. With their victory on Sunday, the 1-13 Jets are no longer the sole possessors of the worst record in the NFL. Not only that, but the Jaguars have an easier strength of schedule, which puts them in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall pick. All year long, it appeared the Jets would be the future NFL home of Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Now, that may not happen.
Bills at Patriots.
Current: BUF -7 | Reopen: BUF -6.5 | Lookahead: BUF -4.
Why it moved: The Bills looked like they were becoming the one contender in the AFC that could challenge the Kansas City Chiefs, and they furthered that narrative with a 48-19 beatdown of the Denver Broncos on Saturday night. Josh Allen is looking better and better each week, the defense is finally playing well and they somewhat got the ground game going last week as well. As for the Patriots, they have officially been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2008, and Cam Newton hasn't led a touchdown drive in two full games.
Fade the move? New England's lackluster loss to Miami wasn't an outlier, it has become more of a trend. Just a couple of weeks ago on "Thursday Night Football," the Patriots suffered an embarrassing 24-3 loss to the Rams. To put that into perspective, the Rams just gifted the previously winless Jets their first win of the season! There isn't just one reason the Patriots have been struggling this season. The defense cannot stop the run, the wide receiving corps hasn't been consistent and then of course Newton hasn't looked like himself. It's also possible we won't have to worry about Newton's play anymore, as Jarrett Stidham could see a bump in playing time.




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