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п»їBud's Bets: College football gambling picks for Week 11.
Bud's Bets is my column about college football gambling.
I’ve had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent.
My strategy has been pretty simple: Make my own numbers using a combination of public and private power ratings, plus my own manual adjustments based on personnel, injuries, and matchup knowledge.
With my numbers set, the next step is being ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers come out on Sunday or Monday. Betting before the professionals who want to wager tens of thousands per game is normally an advantage because I am getting in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. Lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my wagers are made early in the week.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
In 2020, there is massive uncertainty with my strategy and all CFB betting. What might have been a great bet on Sunday or Monday might all of a sudden become a horrible wager on a Thursday if key players are rules out due to a positive test of contact tracing. Granted, the risk is equal on both sides of a game, but it’s still not a comfortable feeling. I have no idea how I will do this year.
William Hill Sports Book is a reliable place to find odds.
Strategy thoughts in an uncertain season.
I am playing fewer games this season. To counteract that loss of volume, I will be doing more second-half wagering and live wagering. I post these in the comments and will track these in a separate record because I am interested in seeing the difference in return between pre- and in-game wagers.
Questions?
I'll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I'll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud's Bets.
Season record.
Pre-Game: 68-65 (51%) ATS, -$388, -2.6% ROI.
In-game/live: 42-28 , $1552, 21.8% ROI.
Overall: $1164, 5.3% ROI.
My super annoying year continues. I beat the closing line consistently again and did not hit big winners. In any previous year beating the market by that much will result in very profitable weekends over the long haul. But this year it has just not been the case. Live continues to go well.
Week 11 Wagers.
Central Michigan -4 at Northern Illinois. I trust CMU to get it done on the ground and get the win.
Iowa PK at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are better than their 1-2 record shows and Minnesota has some major defensive issues.
USC -11 at Arizona. USC won a game despite committing a ton of penalties and turnovers. I'd expect improvement in Game 2.
Cal at Arizona State -5 . I trust Arizona State to bounce back and pressure Chase Garbers .
Oregon State at Washington -13 . Washington's physicality should be goo much for the Beavers.
Georgia -9 at Missouri. This is one of the cheapest prices you'll get on Georgia. Perhaps justified, I still think UGA has too much for Missouri.
Georgia State at Appalachian State -15 . App State is very physical and Georgia State has not been improving in recent weeks.
Rice at Louisiana Tech -1 . I think this should be closer to a touchdown.
Texas State at Georgia Southern -12 . Texas State does not have a good run defense and Georgia Southern looked good over the weekend. I think this should be closer to 17.
Nevada -10 at New Mexico. Nevada's passing offense looks to be the real deal. New Mexico can score, but a price of 10 feels too good to pass up.
Arkansas at Florida -17 . There is a major let down risk for Florida, but also for Arkansas.
Wake Forest at North Carolina -12.5 . The Tar Heels' offense is really clicking and I think it can win comfortably.
Florida State at NC State -7 . I do not like the injury situation for the Seminoles. NC State gets extra rest having played on Friday evening.
Alabama -25.5 at LSU. With Myles Brennan confirmed out, I'll go ahead and play Alabama here.
Miami at Virginia Tech Over 64 . Both of these offenses are humming and the defenses are not playing very well.
Indiana at Michigan State Under 53 . Both defenses are much better than their respective offenses.
Nevada at New Mexico Over 61 . I am expecting a 42-27 type win.
Baylor at Texas Tech Under 61 . This should be 51, not 61.
Thoughts on some other games.


NFL picks, predictions for Week 11: Packers edge Colts; Browns clip Eagles; Patriots begin playoff push.
Week 11 of the NFL season features five games between teams with winning records.
That action starts with the "Thursday Night Football" showdown between the Cardinals and Seahawks � a pair of 6-3 teams in the super-competitive NFC West.
On Sunday, the Titans and Ravens meet in a battle of 6-3 team in the 1 p.m. ET slot. The Packers (7-2) and Colts (6-3) square off in the 4:25 p.m. ET. The Sunday Night Football matchup features the Chiefs (8-1) and Raiders (6-3), and the Monday Night Football matchup pits the Rams (6-3) against the Buccaneers (7-3).
It's a great schedule and a chance to improve on our NFL pick 'em record.
Last Week: 7-7 Season: 57-39.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 11:
NFL picks, predictions for Week 11.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFL Network k.
The Cardinals won a 37-34 thriller in the first meeting and are coming off an emotional Hail Mary victory against the Bills. Russell Wilson needs to clean up the turnovers after throwing for seven interceptions the last four weeks – a stretch that includes three losses. Seattle gets the rematch, but it's close.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 24.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Browns have dealt with ugly weather in their last two games, but the return of Nick Chubb ignited the running game. Chubb and Kareem Hunt works against the Eagles' 26th-ranked run defense, even if Carson Wentz � the quarterback Philadelphia traded Cleveland to move up in the 2016 NFL Draft for � makes it interesting.
Pick : Browns 24, Eagles 21.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Drew Brees' status will be monitored during the week, and this remains a heated NFC South rivalry. The Falcons rank 31st against the pass. It's another chance for Alvin Kamara – who has 648 receiving yards this season – to shine. New Orleans wins a tight one.
Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 28.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Alex Smith – a former No. 1 pick – has back-to-back 300-yard games, but Washington lost by a field goal both times. This will be a showcase for the top two picks in last year's draft with Joe Burrow and Chase Young. Burrow leads a last-minute victory for Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals 26, Washington 23.
New England Patriots at Houston (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Don't look now, but the Patriots have won back-to-back games and could make a second-half AFC playoff push. Cam Newton hasn't thrown an interception in three games, and if that trend continues New England will stay in the hunt.
Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 19.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Which trend do you take with the Lions? Detroit is 2-4 ATS as an underdog, but they are 3-2 S/U in one-score games. Teddy Bridgewater's status is uncertain, and we will trust the Lions to get back to .500.
Pick: Lions 27, Panthers 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Jaguars are double-digit underdogs for the second straight week, but the difference will be an aggressive Steelers' defense that will force Jake Luton into turnovers. Pittsburgh improves to 10-0 behind Ben Roethlisberger – who continues to spread the wealth to a talented group of receivers.
Pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 19.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
This is the toughest game on the board to pick. The Titans throttled the Ravens in the AFC divisional playoffs last season behind Derrick Henry, and the Ravens have to answer after a Sunday Night Football flop against the Patriots. Lamar Jackson delivers here, but it won't be easy.
Pick: Ravens 26, Titans 23.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Denver Broncos.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Dolphins have the second-longest winning streak in the NFL at five games, and Tua Tagovailoa is playing efficient, mistake-free football. He gives Broncos general manager John Elway another glimpse at what a true franchise quarterback can do.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Broncos 23.
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Chargers are struck in a three-game losing streak, and they have given up 29 points or more in six straight games. If the Jets were going to get that first victory, then this might be the spot. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert won't let it happen.
Pick: Chargers 31, Jets 23.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Packers opened as the favorites, but the line shifted to Indianapolis. Philip Rivers is 1-3 as a starter against the Packers, but he averages 372 yards per game in those contests. Aaron Rodgers matches that in a fourth-quarter thriller.
Pick: Packers 33, Colts 27.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Cowboys had a bye week to figure out the latest quarterback plan, but the bigger issue will be slowing down Dalvin Cook on the road. Minnesota continues to push back into the NFC playoff picture with yet another victory.
Pick: Vikings 29, Cowboys 20.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Chiefs were double-digit favorites ahead of the Oct. 10 matchup, and the Raiders sprung a 40-32 upset. Las Vegas is playing like a playoff team, but the Chiefs learned their lesson. Kansas City won't forget about the running game this time around.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 26.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Rams have been favored in their last six games, so it's rare chance to play underdog. Tampa Bay is 5-0 when it scores 30 points or more, so Los Angeles' best bet would be if this doesn't turn into a shootout.


College football Week 11: Picks and preview.
College football Week 11: Picks and preview.
What a week. The COVID-19 surge throughout the country continues to hinder the college football world with numerous postponements and cancellations. The SEC, where Alabama-LSU, Texas A&M-Tennessee, Auburn-Mississippi State and Georgia-Missouri have all been halted, has been hit particularly hard.
Still, there are plenty of exciting matchups on the Week 11 slate. Here are our previews and predictions (point spreads courtesy of BetOnline.ag) for games featuring teams in The Associated Press Top 25 and other intriguing contests.
East Carolina (1-5) at No. 7 Cincinnati (6-0), Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2.
The Bearcats are off to their best start since their 12-1 season of 2009 when they lost to Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Cincinnati is getting it done on both sides of the ball, but a defense that has yielded just 70 total points, and more than 13 just once, must be celebrated. East Carolina has been outscored 181-74 during a four-game losing streak at Cincinnati.
Predictions: Cincinnati (-27 1/2)
Western Carolina (0-0) at No. 22 Liberty (7-0), Saturday, Noon, ESPN3.
Obviously, this is the best season in Liberty's brief FBS football history, and the program is one victory away from matching a school record on that level. The Flames, who just gave coach Hugh Freeze a contract extension, might have the country's best unknown player in quarterback Malik Willis (1,339 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, one interception; 603 rushing yards, seven touchdowns). Western Carolina, out of the FCS, is playing its first of three scheduled games in 2020.
Prediction: OFF.
Middle Tennessee (2-5) at No. 16 Marshall (6-0), Saturday, Noon, CBS Sports Network.
As Marshall looks to continue its best start since 2014, it will be somewhat of a somber day in Huntington. Saturday will mark the 50th anniversary of the 1970 plane crash that claimed the lives of 75 people, including Marshall players, coaches, administrators and friends of the program on the way back from a game at East Carolina. Back on the field, this seems to have the makings of a special Marshall team that has outscored its opponents 220-57. MTSU has allowed 86 points in its last two games. Prediction : Marshall (-23 1/2)
No. 10 Indiana (3-0) at Michigan State (1-2), Saturday, Noon, ABC.
Have the Hoosiers officially become the darlings of the college football world? With wins over perennial Big Ten powers Penn State and Michigan, Indiana is trying to reach 4-0 for the first time since 1990 and is ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 1969. How did Indiana get here? Partially because of an offense that's averaging 37.0 points. Meanwhile, it's uncertain what to expect from Michigan State, which lost at home to Rutgers, won at Michigan and was blown out 49-7 at Iowa. The Spartans have won three straight and 17 of 20 in this series.
No. 15 Coastal Carolina (7-0) at Troy (4-3), Saturday, Noon, ESPNU.
11/13/20 update: This game has been cancelled due to COVID-19.
Like Marshall, and to a certain extent Liberty, Coastal Carolina is another Group of Five program that has turned heads this season despite entering with little fanfare. The Chanticleers are a powerful offensive team (37.9 points per game) and also have yielded six points over their last two games. Troy has dropped two of its last three games but has scored 102 points in its three home games this season.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina (-10 1/2)
No. 9 Miami, Fla. (6-1) at Virginia Tech (4-3), Saturday, Noon, ESPN2.
Miami is actually the underdog entering this contest. The Hurricanes are trying for a fourth consecutive win overall and a third victory in four trips to Virginia Tech. The Hokies thought they blocked a game-tying kick and returned it for a winning touchdown against Liberty last week, but the play had been ruled dead after coach Justin Fuente called a timeout. It was a cruel moment for Virginia Tech, but taking down a Miami team that averages 34.4 points would be a nice bounce back.
South Alabama (3-4) at No. 25 Louisiana (6-1), Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+
Back in the Top 25, Louisiana has a chance to clinch the Sun Belt West Division and a spot in the league's championship game -- most likely against Coastal Carolina. The Ragin' Cajuns have won three in a row by a combined 21 points. They've also won four straight over South Alabama by a combined 30 points.
Prediction: Louisiana (-15 1/2)
No. 20 USC (1-0) at Arizona (0-0), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Fox.
USC pulled out a comeback 28-27 win over Arizona State last week and now takes on that state's other Pac-12 squad. Kedon Slovis threw for 381 yards. while receivers Drake London and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for 15 receptions and 225 yards last week. Arizona, meanwhile, is finally set to open its season after COVID-19 claimed its scheduled date with Utah.
No. 2 Notre Dame (7-0) at Boston College (5-3), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC.
It's a road game for the surging Irish, so we won't have to worry about their student section being involved. Notre Dame's defense will try to stop former Irish backup quarterback Phil Jurkovec. The sophomore has thrown for 2,083 yards and has 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Eagles nearly upset Clemson on the road and should not be intimidated by the Irish.
No. 23 Northwestern (3-0) at Purdue (2-0), Saturday, 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network.
That's right, these are the two top teams in the Big Ten's West Division. Purdue last started 3-0 in 2007, so it's been some time since the Boilermakers have enjoyed this kind of early success. Their two wins have come by a combined 11 points. Northwestern, meanwhile, is doing it with defense, allowing 36 points in three games while already forcing nine turnovers.
Prediction: Northwestern (-2 1/2)
Arkansas (3-3) at No. 6 Florida (4-1), Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN.
Yes, there are still games being played within the SEC this week. Arkansas quarterback Feleipe Franks (1,428 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, three interceptions) has helped the Hogs surpass their win total from last season and returns to Gainesville to face his former team. However, Arkansas' defense will be seriously challenged by a Florida group that just roughed up then-No. 5 Georgia 44-28. Behind Kyle Trask (1,815 passing yards, 22 TDs, three INTs), the Gators are averaging 42.4 points.
Prediction s: Florida (-17 1/2)


NFL Week 11 game picks: Colts top Packers; Ravens over Titans.
Around The NFL Editor.
Copied!
Gregg Rosenthal went 9-5 on his predictions for Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 92-53-1. How will he fare in Week 11? His picks are below.
SUNDAY, NOV. 22.
Cincinnati Bengals 24, Washington Football Team 21.
After a hot start, Chase Young has one sack and one other QB hit in his last six games. Montez Sweat has been better, but the Washington pass rush has slowed down in recent weeks. If that trend continues, Joe Burrow should have enough time to outscore Alex Smith, who is playing the trusty vet version of Burrow's style of play, and playing it well.
Atlanta Falcons 28, New Orleans Saints 27.
This matchup is trouble annually for the Saints even when they are rolling, and the two-quarter sample size of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill splitting work didn't inspire confidence. I was tempted to go with the Falcons all week and finally switched my pick after NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Friday that Hill is expected to start at quarterback. The Falcons are getting Calvin Ridley back from injury and would be 4-0 under interim coach Raheem Morris if not for Todd Gurley's touchdown by mistake. They are better at stopping the run than you think and I'm not convinced the Saints will be able to pass much.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 13.
The Jaguars' defense is undeniably better since the team's Week 8 bye, getting surprising contributions from Sidney Jones and DaVon Hamilton. The Jaguars' offense is undeniably worse with Jake Luton at quarterback, which gives them little hope against the T.J. Watt for DPOY Express .
New England Patriots 31, Houston Texans 27.
The Texans rank dead last in run defense and turnovers forced, which is a bad recipe against a diverse, peaking New England rushing attack led by Damien Harris. The Patriots didn't turn the ball over and didn't need to throw much during their two-game winning streak. They should be able to replicate that in this reunion with old pal Romeo Crennel.




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